292 AXNT20 KNHC 161012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 612 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 20.3N 64.0W at 16/0900 UTC or 130 nm NNW of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Josephine will gradually turn NW today, NNW tonight, then N Mon. Josephine is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands today, but it's progress should still be monitored. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the Leeward and Virgin Islands today, and Puerto Rico today and Mon. By this afternoon, Josephine is expected to weaken into a tropical depression. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle is centered near 40.0N 58.9W at 16/0900 UTC or 470 nm SW of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Kyle has now become post tropical and will continue to weaken before being absorbed by another low early this week as it continues moving E. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa along 15W this morning. The wave axis extends from 02N to 16N and is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A large area of scattered convection exists with this wave from 08N to 14N E of 20W. A weak eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W from 08N to 22N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed in association with this wave, from 12N to 16N between 27W and 33W. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 48W from 20N southward, moving west at 15 kt. From 05N to 12N between 41W and 49W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring. This fast moving wave is not expected to develop further through Mon, but has a low chance of development once it reaches the Caribbean. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, as well as over the next 5 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 16N16W to 13N22W to 12N36W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N36W to 11N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N48W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N- 12N between 53W- 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high near 27N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Bay of Campeche, mainly south of 21N, and scattered moderate convection is occurring just off the Louisiana coast. High pressure sagging south through the Gulf will support gentle winds and slight seas across the through mid-week. Locally fresh winds are possible late this evening in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold front may stall along the northern Gulf coast Mon into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection associated with an upper-level cyclonic circulation over Cuba has generally diminished overnight. The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the SE Caribbean, mainly S of 14N. Otherwise mainly dry conditions prevail. See the Special Features section above for information on the potential for heavy rain in the far NE Caribbean from Tropical Storm Josephine today and Mon as it passes N and E of the basin. Moderate trades exist across most of the basin, with some locally fresh east winds occurring off the coast of Colombia. Tropical Josephine will pass well north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands today and tonight, then move farther away from the area Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the south- central Caribbean through early week, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A strong tropical wave is forecast to cross the Windward Islands late today into early Mon, then reside in the eastern Caribbean early this week, where it has a low chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Josephine. A surface ridge prevails across the subtropical Atlantic from a 1023 mb high S of the Azores to a 1021 mb high near 31N51W to southern Florida, leading to gentle winds and fair weather north of 26N. In fact, fair weather prevails across the basin north of 20N, with the exception of Tropical Storm Josephine. Tropical Storm Josephine near 20.3N 64.0W 1009 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near 21.1N 65.6W this afternoon, then move to 22.4N 67.4W Mon morning. By Mon afternoon, Josephine will weaken to a remnant low near 23.8N 68.7W, and be near 25.4N 69.1W Tue morning. The remnant low will then reach 27.0N 68.9W Tue afternoon, and 28.2N 68.3W Wed morning, and near 30.0N 66.5W early Thu. Otherwise, persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate south to southeast winds. A weak cold front may stall just offshore the southeast U.S. coast early next week. $$ KONARIK