000 AXNT20 KNHC 160459 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1259 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 20.1N 62.6W at 16/0300 UTC or 115 nm NNE of the northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 12 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 210 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. The WNW motion is expected to continue for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest and north early this week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast and north of the Leeward Islands through today. It is possible that locally heavy rainfall may reach the areas of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as Josephine passes to the north of that area. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Kyle is centered near 40.0N 60.4W at 16/0300 UTC or 515 nm SW of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving ENE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm eastern semicircle. Kyle will continue moving ENE until after it transitions to a post-tropical cyclone later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 28/29W from 08N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Little to no significant shower activity is noted with the wave at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from 20N southward, moving westward 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-12N. Upper-level winds are expected to become a little more conducive for development by mid-week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 16N17W to 13N22W to 12N35W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N35W to 11N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N47W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-15N between 18W-23W. Another area of scattered strong showers prevails from 08N-12N between 53W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb high near 27N91W. Isolated showers and tstorms are mostly just inland along the coast of Louisiana. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the southern Bay of Campeche, mainly south of 21N. ASCAT shows light to gentle anticyclonic winds covering the basin, except for moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche. High pressure sagging south through the Gulf will support gentle winds and slight seas across the basin through mid-week. Locally fresh winds are possible tonight in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold front may approach the northern Gulf coast Mon night into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level cyclonic circulation centered over central Cuba is enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the NW Caribbean, north of a line from 17N88W to 20N76W. The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean, mainly south of 12N. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are possible this morning over the SE Caribbean from Trinidad to the ABC Islands. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Josephine, described in the Special Features section above, may bring some rain today to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as the center passes to the north of those islands. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades across the central Caribbean with gentle winds elsewhere. Squalls associated with Tropical Storm Josephine will come very close to the northernmost Leeward and Virgin Islands today as the center passes just to the north. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through early this week, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A strong tropical wave, currently along 45W, has a low chance of tropical cyclone development as it approaches the eastern Caribbean Sea early this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the subtropical Atlantic from a 1024 mb high near 35N26W to a 1022 mb high near 31N52W to the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula, leading to gentle winds and fair weather north of 26N. In fact, fair weather prevails across the basin north of 20N, with the exception of Tropical Storm Josephine. Tropical Storm Josephine is forecast to gradually weaken to a tropical depression by Monday morning near 24N68W, then become a remnant low Tuesday morning near 27N69W. Otherwise, a persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate southeast winds. A weak trough may move just offshore the southeast U.S. coast early this week. $$ Hagen