000 AXNT20 KNHC 151002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 602 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 18.9N 58.4W at 15/0900 UTC or 270 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong convection exists within 180 nm of the center NE semicircle, and within 90 nm SW semicircle. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands during the weekend in order to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has pass north of the a rea.It is possible that locally heavy rainfall may reach the areas of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as Josephine passes to the northeast of that area. It is possible that isolated flooding may happen in Puerto Rico through Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. Tropical Storm Kyle is centered near 38.7N 68.0W at 15/0900 UTC or 240 nm SE of Providence Rhode Island moving ENE at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection has developed in associated with this wave from 10N to 12N between 40W and 44W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 22N southward into Central America, moving west at 15 kt. Low pressure is forecast to form in the Eastern Pacific in association with this wave this weekend. Numerous strong convection is ahead of this wave over much of Central America, where heavy rainfall is possible this weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 15N27W to 12N37W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N40W to 10N54W to 13N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located within 180 nm either side of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging across the northern Gulf of Mexico is bringing dry conditions with light to gentle winds and seas of 4 ft or less to the basin. This high will support gentle winds and slight seas across the basin through early next week. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold front may approach the northern Gulf coast Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Josephine, which is expected to pass well north and east of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Please also see the tropical waves section for information on western Caribbean tropical wave that may produce flooding rainfall over portions of Central America this weekend. Aside from these areas, scattered moderate convection is noted between 17N and 21N between 75W and 85W. Fresh trade winds along with seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring N of Colombia in the SW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper level trough extends from Bermuda to Cuba. This is producing some moderate convection in the Central Bahamas. A surface trough to the NE of Tropical Storm Josephine (see Special Features section above) stretches from from 32N44W to 24N52W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 120 miles of this trough. Otherwise high pressure extending along 30N is dominating weather N of 26N. A persistent ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds. This persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate southeast winds well into next week. $$ KONARIK