000 AXNT20 KNHC 142235 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 17.8N 56.1W at 14/2100 UTC or 400 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm NE quadrant and 90 nm SE and NW quadrants. A W-NW motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the NW late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. Tropical Storm Kyle is centered near 37.7N 71.7W at 14/2100 UTC or 160 nm SE of Atlantic City New Jersey moving ENE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W south of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 35W and 37W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W south of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over western Panama and Costa Rica near the wave axis. Heavy rainfall may occur in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend as this wave crosses Central America and supports low pressure development in the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 15N16W to 13N34W to 09N43W. The ITCZ extends from 09N43W to 14N52W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the monsoon trough between 25W and 30W, and within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 38W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of Mexico as a high pressure ridge extends across the northern Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or less across the basin, based on available buoy observations and earlier altimeter data. A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving over the coastal waters of southern Mississippi. High pressure across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through the weekend. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the tropical waves section above for information on the strong western Caribbean tropical wave that could support heavy rainfall over portions of Central America this weekend. Fresh trades prevail across the south-central waters this evening to the south of a subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic. Earlier altimeter data indicated seas of 8-11 ft in this region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades are noted over the remaining area, with seas less than 8 ft. Dry air is precluding showers and thunderstorms across the basin, aside from some isolated, fast- moving showers between 65W and 70W. Tropical Storm Josephine is expected to pass well NE of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through tonight, with the strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Josephine and Tropical Storm Kyle. A subtropical ridge axis extends across the western Atlantic from high pressure centered near 31N55W. The enhanced pressure gradient between this high and T.S. Josephine is producing a broad area of moderate to fresh easterly winds between 45W and 65W. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 31N44W to 29N48W. Farther east, a 1025 mb high is near 35N28W, with moderate to fresh NE winds between this ridge and the western coast of Africa. Tropical Storm Josephine near 17.8N 56.1W 1004 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Josephine will move to 18.6N 58.0W Sat morning, 19.9N 60.5W Sat afternoon, 21.1N 62.9W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 22.5N 65.1W Sun afternoon, 24.1N 66.7W Mon morning, and 25.7N 67.7W Mon afternoon. Josephine will become a remnant low as it moves to near 28.6N 67.5W Tue afternoon. Otherwise, a persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds. $$ B Reinhart