000 AXNT20 KNHC 141712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 16.1N 54.7W at 14/1500 UTC or 500 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A WNW general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 20N southward, moving west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate is from 08N to 14N between 30W and 38W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 21N southward, moving west at 15 knots. This wave will move across the western Carribbean and into Central America this weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it moves to the west of Central America. It is possible that heavy rainfall may occur in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 17N between 77W and 86W. A tropical wave that extends southward into the eastern Pacific is along 96W in the Bay of Campeche. This wave is moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is S of 20N and W of 93W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 15N16W to 13N30W to 08N42W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Aside from the previously mentioned tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche, high pressure generally centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico is dominating weather over the region, with light to gentle winds, seas below 4 ft, and no significant convection in the region. High pressure across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through the weekend. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the tropical waves section above for information on the strong tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean and its impact on Central America into the weekend. Also, please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Josephine that will pass well north and east of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Elsewhere across the region, dry air is precluding showers and thunderstorms across the basin, aside from some isolated fast- moving trade showers between 62W and 68W. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through tonight, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N54W. A small surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N43W to 28N47W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. A 1026 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 35N29W. Tropical Storm Josephine is near 16.1N 54.7W 1006 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Josephine will move to 17.1N 56.7W this evening, 18.4N 59.3W Sat morning, 19.7N 61.8W Sat evening, 20.9N 64.1W Sun morning, 22.5N 66.0W Sun evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N 67.0W Mon morning. Otherwise, a persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the W Atlantic. $$ Formosa