000 AXNT20 KNHC 141013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 15.3N 53.3W at 14/0900 UTC or 590 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Josephine is forecast to generally continue to the WNW for into the weekend, before turning NW for the start of next week, with little strengthening expected. Josephine should pass well NE of the Leeward Islands this weekend, and interests in these islands should continue to monitor its progress. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 20N southward, moving west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection has developed in association with this wave from 06N to 13N between 36W and 40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from Jamaica southward, moving west at 15 knots. This wave will move across the western Carribbean and into Central America this weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it moves to the west of Central America. It is possible that heavy rainfall may occur in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is located ahead of this wave S of 16N and W of 78W. A tropical wave that extends southward into the eastern Pacific is along 95W in the Bay of Campeche. This wave is moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists in association with this wave S of 20N and W of 93W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W to 13N28W to 09N35W to 10N43W. The ITCZ is along 09N from 54W to 61W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 210 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted just N of the ITCZ from 10N to 12N between 50W and 59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Aside from the previously mentioned tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche, high pressure generally centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico is dominating weather over the region, with light to gentle winds, seas below 4 ft, and no significant convection in the region. High pressure across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through the weekend. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the tropical waves section above for information on the strong tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean and its impact on Central America into the weekend. Also, please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Josephine that will pass well north and east of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Elsewhere across the region, dry air is precluding showers and thunderstorms across the basin, aside from some isolated fast- moving trade showers between 62W and 68W.Fres h to strong trade winds will continue across the south- central Caribbean through tonight, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Josephine. A broad and weak upper level trough extends generally from Bermuda through the Bahamas, with an associated surface trough farther east from 21 to 26N along 64W. Only isolated showers are in the vicinity of the surface feature. Farther east, another surface trough is along 45W N of 25N, with some moderate convection within about 120 nm of its axis, mainly N of 30N. A high pressure ridge extending along 32-33N is dominates the weather with the exception of these troughs. This persistent ridge will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across much of the basin into the weekend. $$ KONARIK