000 AXNT20 KNHC 140546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE, at 14/0300 UTC, is near 14.8N 52.2W. JOSEPHINE is moving toward the WNW, or 300 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. The motion of JOSEPHINE, toward the west-northwest, is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest will happen late this weekend or early next week. The center of JOSEPHINE is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands during the weekend. Please monitor the progress of JOSEPHINE if you are in the area of the Leeward Islands. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 225 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The forecast is this wave to move across Central America during the next two days. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it moves to the west of Central America. The atmospheric conditions are expected to be conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during this weekend or early next week. It is possible that heavy rainfall may occur in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. Current precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters covers Colombia and its coastal plains and coastal waters, and sections of NW Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, from 03N to 10N between 72W and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers: the SW Caribbean Sea, inland areas of Central America, and parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean, from 06N to 15N between 80W and 86W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong is in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate covers the Caribbean Sea from 18N to 23N between Haiti and NW Cuba. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from 87W westward. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W from 21N southward, moving westward through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, 15 knots. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, and possibly remnant rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico and inland sections of Mexico, from 22N southward from 88W westward to 100W in Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W, to 14N22W 13N30W 10N33W 08N36W, and 10N43W. The ITCZ is along 09N/10N from 54W to 61W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is within 210 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 12N between 50W and 53W, and from 10N to 11N between 57W and 59W, to the north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from 87W westward. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W from 21N southward, moving westward through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, and possibly remnant rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico and inland sections of Mexico, from 22N southward from 88W westward to 100W in Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 88W eastward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. The surface pressure gradient is comparatively flat. High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through Sunday night, in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The forecast is this wave to move across Central America during the next two days. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it moves to the west of Central America. The atmospheric conditions are expected to be conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during this weekend or early next week. It is possible that heavy rainfall may occur in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. Current precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters covers Colombia and its coastal plains and coastal waters, and sections of NW Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, from 03N to 10N between 72W and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers: the SW Caribbean Sea, inland areas of Central America, and parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean, from 06N to 15N between 80W and 86W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong is in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate covers the Caribbean Sea from 18N to 23N between Haiti and NW Cuba. Tropical Storm Josephine near 14.8N 52.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 15.8N 54.0W Fri morning, 17.3N 56.7W Fri evening, 18.8N 59.5W Sat morning, 20.0N 62.1W Sat evening, 21.3N 64.4W Sun morning, and 22.8N 66.2W Sun evening. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near 26.0N 67.7W late Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south- central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from one upper level Bermuda-area cyclonic circulation to a second upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near the NW half of the Bahamas and the Atlantic Ocean side coast of Cuba. A surface trough is along 63W/64W from 20N to 27N. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 60W westward. A second surface trough is along 24N46W 29N44W, curving beyond 32N45W. Precipitation: rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of the surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward, away from the surface troughs. Tropical Storm Josephine near 14.8N 52.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 15.8N 54.0W Fri morning; 17.3N 56.7W Fri evening; 18.8N 59.5W Sat morning; 20.0N 62.1W Sat evening; 21.3N 64.4W Sun morning; and 22.8N 66.2W Sun evening. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near 26.0N 67.7W late Mon. A persistent ridge, that is extending from the Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds, locally fresh S of 25N, through Friday night. $$ mt