000 AXNT20 KNHC 132300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Josephine, at 13/2100 UTC, is near 14.5N 50.6W or 865 nm ESE of the northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Please monitor the progress of Josephine if you are in the Leeward Islands. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm of the NE semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 18N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis and south of 10N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 23N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. The interaction of the wave and the Colombian low pressure is enhancing an area of moderate to strong convection along the western coast of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 13N46W, then resumes west of T.S. Josephine near 11N53W to 08N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Northern Gulf coast from western Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Also, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen concentrated Along the western portion of the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf from afternoon sea breeze. In the Bay of Campeche, an area of Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed south of 20N. Convection in the Yucatan Peninsula is associated to the wave along 90W. An upper level east-to-west oriented trough extends from NW Cuba to NE Mexico near 24N98W. On the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 10N between the coastal areas of Nicaragua to western Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in south central Caribbean Sea through late Friday night. The comparatively strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela, each night. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage during the next several nights. On the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N54W. further east, 1026 mb high is over the E Atlantic. Both broad areas of high Pressure remain in control over the basin north of 20N. There are some scattered showers noted to the north of the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted at this time. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near 25.0N 67.5W Mon afternoon. Otherwise, a persistent ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds, locally fresh S of 25N through Fri night. $$ MMTorres