000 AXNT20 KNHC 131742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Josephine, at 13/1500 UTC, is near 13.7N 49.2W or 847 nm ESE of the northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. Please monitor the progress of Josephine if you are in the area of the Leeward Islands. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm of the northern semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 23N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis to include Hispaniola. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 89W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through Central America. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 12N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis is over the N Gulf of Mexico along 29N. Isolated moderate convection is over the E Gulf E of 86W to include Florida. Scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche S of 20N. An upper level east-to-west oriented trough extends from NW Cuba to NE Mexico near 24N98W. High pressure in the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Locally fresh winds are possible each night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 14N and W of 79W to include S Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in south central Caribbean Sea through late Friday night. The comparatively strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela, each night. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage during the next several nights. Tropical Storm Josephine is near 13.7N 49.2W 1005 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 14.5N 51.1W this evening, 15.8N 53.6W Fri morning, 17.1N 56.3W Fri evening, 18.5N 58.9W Sat morning, 19.9N 61.3W Sat evening, and 21.3N 63.6W Sun morning. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N 67.0W early Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 35N62W. A 1027 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N31W. Scattered showers are N of the Leeward Islands from 21N-26N between 60W-64W. Tropical Storm Josephine is near 13.7N 49.2W 1005 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 14.5N 51.1W this evening, 15.8N 53.6W Fri morning, 17.1N 56.3W Fri evening, 18.5N 58.9W Sat morning, 19.9N 61.3W Sat evening, and 21.3N 63.6W Sun morning. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N 67.0W early Mon. Otherwise, a persistent ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds, locally fresh S of 25N through Fri night. $$ Formosa