000 AXNT20 KNHC 131030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression ELEVEN, at 13/0900 UTC, is near 12.9N 47.9W. ELEVEN is moving westward, or 285 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. It is expected to turn west-northwest today and tonight. This motion is forecast to continue during the next few days, followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. Please monitor the progress of ELEVEN if you are in the area of the Leeward Islands. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm northwest of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 23N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate in clusters within 180 nm of the tropical wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through Central America. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters covers the area from central Cuba westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Caribbean Sea from 80W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 14N19W, 10N30W, 10N35W, and 13N39W. The ITCZ is along 09N/10N from 52W to 61W. Precipitation: scattered moderate isolated strong is within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 39W eastward. Scattered moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level east-to-west oriented trough extends from NW Cuba to Mexico near 24N98W at the coast. Precipitation: broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated moderate cover the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward and 90W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A broad ridge extends from central Florida, toward the SW corner of the area. High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Fresh to strong winds are possible each night in the eastern Bay of Campeche, near the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica/Panama. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward and 74W westward. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in south central Caribbean Sea through late Friday night. The comparatively strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela, each night. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage during the next several nights. Tropical Depression ELEVEN near 12.9N 47.9W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. ELEVEN will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.8N 49.7W this afternoon, move to 14.9N 52.2W Fri morning, 16.2N 55.0W Fri afternoon, 17.6N 57.7W Sat morning, 18.8N 60.2W Sat afternoon, and 20.3N 62.5W Sun morning. ELEVEN will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.0N 66.5W early Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W eastward. A persistent ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds, mainly south of 27N, through the weekend. Tropical Depression ELEVEN near 12.9N 47.9W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. ELEVEN will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.8N 49.7W this afternoon, move to 14.9N 52.2W Fri morning, 16.2N 55.0W Fri afternoon, 17.6N 57.7W Sat morning, 18.8N 60.2W Sat afternoon, and 20.3N 62.5W Sun morning. ELEVEN will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.0N 66.5W early Mon. $$ mt/dbm