000 AXNT20 KNHC 122324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Eleven is near 12.7N 45.7W at 12/2100 UTC or 1060 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the week. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N- 16N between 37W- 48W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 34W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The convection noted in the proximity of the wave is related to the monsoon trough, and is from 07N-11N between 28W-34W. A tropical wave is in the east Caribbean, extending from 02N-23N with axis near 62W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave affecting Puerto Rico and adjacent waters north of 18N. Additional activity is also noted along the coast of Venezuela near the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean south of 19N with axis near 82W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the southern portion of the wave affecting portions of Central America as it interacts with the Pacific monsoon trough in the area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 17N16W to to 12N39W. The ITCZ extends west of T.D Eleven near 08N50W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection prevail along and south of the monsoon trough from 08N-10N between 14W-28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N91W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 26N and east of 90W and to the south of 26N between 87W- 92W. High level clouds with a few showers reaching the ground are noted across the Bay of Campeche. Along the eastern Gulf near the Florida coast, afternoon sea breeze convection has moved offshore from 25N-28N. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin, except the Bay of Campeche where gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted. On the forecast, the high pressure across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Fresh to locally strong winds are possible each night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Pacific monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Colombia westward across Panama and Cost Rica. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N between 79W-83W. ASCAT data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except south of 16N between 70W-80W where fresh to strong winds are noted. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south- central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage during the next several nights. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on T.D Eleven and the tropical wave moving across the southern SW N Atlantic waters. Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic mainly west of 70W. A persistent surface ridge with a 1022 mb high extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds mainly south of 27N through the weekend. A surface trough in noted near 32N39W to 25N38W. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the trough axis. On the forecast, the Tropical Depression Eleven will strengthen to a tropical storm late tonight. Eleven will move to 14.0N 49.9W Thu afternoon, 15.2N 52.2W Fri morning, 16.6N 54.8W Fri afternoon, 17.8N 57.3W Sat morning, and 19.1N 59.7W Sat afternoon. Eleven will change little in intensity as it moves near 21.5N 64.5W Sun afternoon. $$ MMTorres/NRamos