000 AXNT20 KNHC 121739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 12.4N 44.2W as of 12/1500 UTC. T.D Eleven is moving westward at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the week. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-16N between 37W-47W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from 02N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The convection noted in the proximity of the wave is related to the monsoon trough. A tropical wave has entered the east Caribbean, with axis extending along 62W from 02N-22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave affecting Puerto Rico and adjacent waters north of 17N. A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 82W from 20N southward, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the southern portion of the wave affecting portions of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 19N16W to 11N25W to 12N33W. The ITCZ extends west of T.D Eleven near 10N47W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection prevail along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 27N86W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin, except the Bay of Campeche where gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted. High pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Fresh to locally strong winds are possible each night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The monsoon trough extends eastward from the Pacific basin along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. With this, scattered moderate convection prevails along 10N. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except south of 16N between 70W-80W where fresh to strong winds are noted. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage during the next several nights. Tropical Depression Eleven is expected to intensify to a tropical storm today while moving northwest approaching the northeast Caribbean by this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on T.D Eleven and the tropical wave moving across the basin. Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic mainly west of 70W. A persistent surface ridge extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds mainly south of 27N through the weekend. Tropical Depression Eleven will strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.8N 46.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. It will reach near 13.5N 48.4W Thu morning, near 14.5N 50.8W Thu evening, and to near 15.7N 53.3W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds of 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Tropical Storm Eleven is forecast to track northwestward to near 17.0N 55.7W Fri evening and maintain intensity as it reaches near 18.2N 58.1W Sat morning. It will then begin to weaken as it moves to near 20.5N 63.0W early on Sun. $$ ERA