000 AXNT20 KNHC 092202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 602 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 10N28W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 NM of the center of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive to support additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late this week. This low has a medium probability of tropical cyclogenesis. Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 28W south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 25W and 35W. Low pressure is along the wave axis, where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. There is a medium probability for the low to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see special features section above for more information. A tropical wave axis is near 46W south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 41W and 49W. A tropical wave axis is near 64W south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm east of the wave axis south of 13N. A tropical wave axis is near 80W south of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted south of 15N, between 78W and 85W, including portions of Central America from eastern Honduras southward to Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 11N24W to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W to 10N61W. Besides the convection described above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted near the coast of Africa, from 10N to 15N east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 29N85W, with a ridge axis extending westward across the northern waters. A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf of Mexico from 23N97W to the Bay of Campeche. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is on either side of the trough axis. Gusty winds and locally rough seas are possible in and near stronger thunderstorms. Isolated moderate showers and thunderstorms are occurring over portions of the central and eastern Gulf as well. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the SW Gulf east of the trough axis, where there is a tighter pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure center over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the high pressure center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to moderate winds across much of the area through the middle of next week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the convection associated with the two tropical waves over the Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week. Near gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will continue for the next several days. Winds and seas may increase over the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the middle of the upcoming week as a tropical wave crosses the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A relatively weak pressure pattern prevails across the subtropical Atlantic waters, leading to gentle to moderate winds across most of the area. A weak 1019 mb low pressure is meandering near 29N73W with scattered showers and thunderstorms in its vicinity. A 1021 mb high is near 27N63W. A surface trough extends from 32N59W to 21N56W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the trough. The weak low pressure near 29N73W will remain nearly stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas through Mon, then dissipate by Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the middle of the upcoming week as a tropical wave crosses the region. $$ AL