000 AXNT20 KNHC 091651 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 27W south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-12N between 24W-33W. Environmental conditions could support some development of this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward across the eastern Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 46W south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-11.5N between 40W-53W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 63W south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is east of the wave axis from 09.5-12N between 58W-62W, including near Trinidad and Tobago. A Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 79W south of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean, south of 12N, between 77W-84W, including over Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 16N17W to 10N23W to 11N37W to 10N53W. The ITCZ extends from 10N53W to 09N61W. Besides the convection described above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted near the coast of Africa, from 09N-13N, east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 28N87W, with a ridge axis extending across the northern waters. ASCAT shows light to gentle winds over these waters. Strong upper-level divergence over the SW Gulf of Mexico is enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 19.5N-23.5N between 93.5W-98W. Gusty winds and locally rough seas are possible in and near stronger tstorms. Isolated moderate showers and tstorms are occurring over additional portions of the central and eastern Gulf as well. High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to moderate winds across much of the area through the middle of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the convection associated with the two tropical waves over the Caribbean. Recent ASCAT data shows a large area of strong trades across the central Caribbean from 10.5N-17.5N between 70W-80W, with locally near gale force winds off the coast of N Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras region and in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Near gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela again tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will continue for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A relatively weak pressure pattern prevails across the subtropical Atlantic waters, leading to gentle winds across most of the area. A weak 1019 mb low pressure is meandering near 29N73W producing scattered showers and tstorms near it. A 1022 mb high is near 30N76W. Additional showers and tstorms are seen west of this weak high, east of Florida. Upper-level troughing to the SE of Bermuda is enhancing a cluster of moderate showers and tstorms from 26.5N-29.5N between 63.5W-67.5W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also seen along the axis of a surface trough, that extends from 22N56W to 30N59W. The weak low pressure near 29N73W will remain nearly stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas through Mon, then dissipate by Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the middle of the week as a tropical wave crosses the region. $$ Hagen