000 AXNT20 KNHC 062259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates the environment north of the wave. Scattered strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N within 180 nm east of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 47W and 51W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends across southern Mexico and Guatemala along 91W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the SW Gulf S of 20N and E of 92W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 16N16W to 09N32W to 10N40W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N50W to 09N57W. Isolated weak convection is occurring within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 51W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends from near Pensacola, FL over the north-central Gulf coastal waters. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted near the front off the coast of SE Louisiana. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms continue over the SE Gulf offshore waters. Earlier scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with seas 3 ft or less based on buoy observations and available altimeter data. Light to gentle, variable winds will dominate the Gulf waters through Tue night as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula waters associated with a surface trough. Locally strong winds are likely at night over the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large area of fresh trade winds persists over the central Caribbean waters between a subtropical ridge axis and the Colombian low. Some locally stronger winds are likely occurring near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Peak seas of 7-9 ft are found in the south-central waters near the stronger trades. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. The earlier convection noted over the SW Caribbean has weakened this evening. A broad upper-level low over the eastern Caribbean is supporting isolated convection west of the Lesser Antilles. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough extending to Colombia will support fresh to strong tradewinds across the central basin through Tue. Strong trades will increase and expand across the northern central portions over the weekend with the passage of a pair of tropical waves. Near gale-force winds are expected along the Colombia coastal waters and the Gulf of Venezuela Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the E Caribbean through Tue night, except for fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Fri and Sat nights. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the subtropical Atlantic waters this evening. Weak low pressure centered NE of the Bahamas is producing isolated thunderstorms near a trough that extends from 29N72W to 25N66W. Moderate trades are noted S of 20N between 40W and 60W, south of 1020 mb high pressure centered near 26N48W. Seas are 4-6 ft within these trades. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail across the Atlantic high seas. A weak low will linger NE of the Bahamas through Sun night before dissipating. Elsewhere, high pressure will support light to gentle variable winds, except south of 23N, where moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate the waters from the Great Bahama Bank to the waters north of Hispaniola. $$ B Reinhart