000 AXNT20 KNHC 061030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates the wave environment north of 14N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along and south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 27W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 15N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 06.5N to 11.5N between 43W and 52W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to 16.5N between 54W and 57W, while widely scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave from 09N to 13N between 57W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15-20 knots. Middle to upper level cyclonic wind flow across most of the Gulf of Mexico is combining with a second middle to upper level low across the Caribbean southeast of Jamaica to enhancing strong associated convection with this wave covers the Caribbean Sea from Haiti westward. Precipitation:. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection extends from the Yucatan Channel along 20N south and southeastward across the Gulf of Honduras, the southeastward to coastal Colombia. Clusters of strong convection with tops to -80 deg C and lower are found offshore of Panama and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W to 10N29W to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues along 10N between 49W and 63W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 210 nm southeast of the monsoon trough between 19W and 25W. Elsewhere convection is described with tropical waves above. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, with the cyclonic center over the east central Gulf. This is producing generally stable atmospheric conditions across much of the Gulf, except for scattered moderate convection across the NE Gulf north of 25.5N extending into the Big Bend region. A few clusters of moderate convection are seen offshore of the SE Louisiana coast and just south of Mobile Bay, to the south of a stalled frontal boundary over coastal sections from south Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. A cluster of moderate convection lingers across the central Bay of Campeche south of 20N. A weak 1015 mb high pressure center near 27N92W has collapsed leaving glight to gentle anticyclonic flow at the surface extending from western Florida to SE Texas. Light to gentle variable wind will dominate the Gulf waters through Mon night as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula waters associated with a surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to the eastern Caribbean and then westward to an upper level low center near 15N75W. Stable conditions generally prevail underneath of this troughing, except for very active convection described above associated with the tropical wave across the western Caribbean along 88W. Fresh to strong tradewinds dominate the central Caribbean south of 17N, strongest along the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 7-10 ft are found across this area. Elsewhere moderate trades prevail across the basin. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the SW N Atlantic and the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough to Colombia will support fresh to strong tradewinds across the central basin through Fri. Strong trades will increase and expand across central portions over the weekend with the passage of a pair of tropical waves. Near gale-force winds are expected along the Colombia coastal waters and the Gulf of Venezuela Sat and Sun nights. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the E Caribbean through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A lingering surface trough extends into the area along 31N51W then meanders southwest and then northwestward to a 1016 mb low pressure center near 29N64W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the trough between 63W and 72W. Surface high pressure is found on either side of this trough, with a 1022 mb high near 36N61W, and weak ridge centered across the central Atlantic extends W-SW to the south of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh tradewinds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic south of 20N were seas are 5-7 ft. The surface trough will linger across the waters south of Bermuda through Sat before gradually shifting east of the offshore waters Sun through Mon. Elsewhere high pressure on either side of the trough will support light to gentle variable winds, except south of 23N, where moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate the waters from the Great Bahama Bank to the waters north of Hispaniola. $$ Stripling