000 AXNT20 KNHC 060643 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Aug 06 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for: North America, Central America, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on: satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any other nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough/ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 11N to 17N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 135 nm to the south of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Haiti westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm on either side of the line that extends from 11N78W 12N81W 15N82W 16N86W. The precipitation is occurring around the periphery of the upper level cyclonic circulation center. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Mauritania near 18N16W, to 15N20W 10N29W, and 09N42W and 09N48W. The ITCZ is along 09N/10N between 48W and 63W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to south of the monsoon trough between 20W and 38W; isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 24W and 28W, and from 11N southward between 38W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, with a trough. The trough is supporting a stationary front that is inland, from SW Georgia, to southern Alabama, southern Louisiana, and beyond east Texas. Precipitation: numerous strong was in SW Louisiana at 05/2300 UTC; isolated to widely scattered moderate was in the coastal plains and coastal waters of SE Louisiana at the same time. That precipitation has been moving toward the S and SE with time, and weakening and dissipating. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico from 27N northward between 90W and 94W. A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Light to gentle variable wind will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through Monday night, as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche, and in the adjacent Yucatan Peninsula waters, associated with a surface trough. Fresh to strong winds are likely in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night, as a tropical wave moves to the south of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 135 nm to the south of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Haiti westward. A tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 19N southward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm on either side of the line that extends from 11N78W 12N81W 15N82W 16N86W. The precipitation is occurring around the periphery of the upper level cyclonic circulation center. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to the SE of Puerto Rico. A separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 10N to 20N from Haiti eastward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W westward, beyond southern sections of Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia and in the Caribbean Sea coastal waters from 07N to 10N between 73W and 77W; scattered moderate to strong is in Colombia and in its eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters from 05N to 07N between 76W and 79W. The pressure gradient, between moderate high pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean, and the eastward extension of the NE Pacific Ocean monsoon trough to Colombia, will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin. Strong trade winds will increase and expand across central sections, during the weekend, with the passage of a pair of tropical waves. Near gale-force winds are expected in the Colombia coastal waters and in the Gulf of Venezuela on Saturday night and Sunday night. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the E Caribbean Sea through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb low pressure center is about 260 nm to the WSW of Bermuda. A surface trough extends about 135 nm to the north, and another part of the trough extends about 210 nm to the ESE of the low pressure center. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 28N to 33N between 65W and 72W. The low pressure center is expected to drift west-southwestward during the next couple of days. Any development of this low pressure center should be slow to occur, due to dry air and increasing upper level winds by the weekend. A surface trough is along 32N49W, to 28N52W and 24N65W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 20N to 27N between 50W and 70W. A weak low pressure center will prevail across the northern waters near 30N70W, through Friday night, when it is expected to dissipate. The remainder of the area will be under the influence of a surface ridge from the Bermuda high. Expect light to gentle variable winds, except to the south of 23N, where moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate the Great Bahama Bank and the waters that are to the north of Hispaniola. $$ mt