000 AXNT20 KNHC 052300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N within 240 nm east of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N within 150 nm east of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W south from 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 80W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 11N24W to 08N32W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 10N51W, then resumes from 10N56W to the coast of Brazil near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm of the monsoon trough between 21W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level trough that extends across the southern Mississippi Valley and into the far northern Gulf is supporting isolated convection near and offshore of the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, a 1017 mb high pressure center maintains a ridge across the northern Gulf. A surface trough analyzed over the SE Gulf is associated with some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with seas 3 ft or less throughout based on altimeter data and buoy observations. Light to gentle, variable winds will dominate the Gulf waters through Mon night as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters associated with a surface trough. Fresh to strong winds are likely in the SW Gulf Thu night as a tropical wave moves south of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction of a tropical wave near 84W and an upper-level low centered south of Jamaica is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection over the NW Caribbean waters. Water vapor imagery over the eastern Caribbean shows drier mid-level air prevails across the region, with no convection noted in recent satellite imagery. At the surface, the pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge axis and the Colombian low is producing enhanced Caribbean trade winds. Earlier scatterometer data showed a large area of fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, where seas are 7-10 ft based on available altimeter data. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. High pressure over the SW N Atlantic extending to the northern Caribbean, the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough to Colombia, and the passage of two tropical waves will support fresh to strong trades across the central basin, which are expected to extend to the SW Caribbean tonight. Near gale-force winds are expected over Colombia adjacent waters and the Gulf of Venezuela Sat and Sun night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the E Caribbean through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered near 30N70W, with isolated convection noted near a surface trough that extends NW from the low center. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 1017 mb low pressure near 32N51W to 26N57W to 27N65W. Moderate SE winds are occurring within 180 nm east of the trough axis. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted over the waters S of 20N and E of 60W, south of a weak subtropical ridge. Seas are 4-6 ft in this region based on recent altimeter data and buoy observations. A weak low pressure will prevail across the northern waters NE of the Bahamas through Fri night when it is expected to dissipate. The remainder area will be under the influence of surface ridging from the Bermuda high, which will support light to gentle variable winds, except south of 23N where moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate the Great Bahama Bank and Hispaniola adjacent waters. $$ B Reinhart