000 AXNT20 KNHC 051717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Associated scattered convection is located along and south of the monsoon trough in that area from 02N-10N between 25W-33W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 18N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 12N between 36W and 43W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 16N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 15N between 50W and 55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 18N southward, moving W 15-20 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center over the central Caribbean south of Jamaica is masking the wave signature in satellite imagery. A broad area of moderate to strong convection is seen along the wave axis and it is been enhanced by where the wave axis meets the Pacific monsoon trough in the coastal areas of Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W to 07N40W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave along 41W from 07N43W to 08N51W, then resumes from 09N55W to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and about 200 nm southeast of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 25N91W. The ridge extends across the Gulf supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the basin, except for fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. A trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche near 21N93W to 17N92W. Scattered convection is over the area south of 20N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in the southeast Gulf near the coast from Fort Myers to Marco Island, Florida. For the forecast, light to gentle variable wind will dominate the Gulf N of 22N through most of the period as a weak surface ridge prevails. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche and along the Yucatan peninsula associated with a surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center south of Jamaica and is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection along the monsoon trough across southwest portions of the Caribbean Sea, south of 14N between 75W and 81W. Stable sinking air dominates the middle and upper levels of the eastern Caribbean due to the presence of an upper level low east of the Leeward Islands. The western periphery of a central Atlantic ridge extends W-SW to near 65W this morning. The associated pressure gradient between this high and low pressure across Colombia and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean between 68W and 74W, where seas are running 6-8 ft. Elsewhere light to moderate trade prevail across western portions while moderate trades are seen across eastern portions and the Tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, the Bermuda High across the W Atlantic along with the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across the central basin through today, then will expand to the SW Caribbean tonight and continue through Sun night. Near gale-force winds are expected over Colombia adjacent waters and the Gulf of Venezuela Sat and Sun nights. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the E Caribbean during this period as well. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is seen across the NW waters between 78W and 80W from the NW Bahamas to beyond 31N. This is being supported by the broad upper low dominating the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward and across the central waters to a 1017 mb low pressure near 32N50W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low to 25N58W, then toward the northeast to 28N64W. A 1024 mb surface high is north of this trough across the western Atlantic near 36N61W and extends to offshore of NE Florida. A weak and narrow ridge extends from the NE Atlantic W-SW to near 65W, passing south of the surface trough. This pattern is producing moderate SE to S winds from the N coast of Hispaniola to offshore of NE Florida. High pressure across the W Atlantic extends southwestward to the NW waters and will persist into the weekend. This will support moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds across the Great Bahama Bank and N of Hispaniola through the weekend, while fresh to strong winds are expected N of Hispaniola at night. A broad and weak low pressure will develop over the NE offshore waters today and shift to the north-central waters by Fri before dissipating over the weekend. $$ MTorres