000 AXNT20 KNHC 041040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that center of Tropical Storm Isaias is inland across northeastern North Carolina, near 36.3N 77.5W at 5 am EDT, moving quickly NNE at 28 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 kt, 70 mph. or 110 km/h with higher gusts. The strongest winds are occurring across the eastern side of Isaias, and were impacting the coastal waters of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, as well as Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Scattered showers and small isolated clusters of moderate thunderstorms extend from offshore of the Outer Banks southwestward to the waters N of 28N, and also southward into the central Bahamas between 74W and 77W. Isaias will continue to accelerate north northeastward and race along the eastern seaboard and the I-95 corridor today, producing sustained tropical storm force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force. Heavy rainfall along its path will also produce flash flooding. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22-23W from 03N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded within deep tropical moisture south of 13N. Scattered moderate Isolated strong convection is seen about the African monsoon trough from 04.5N to 12.5N between 20W and 28W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 02N-18N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within deep tropical moisture south of 16N. Scattered moderate convection is seen about the monsoon trough in that area of the Atlantic, from 03N to 09N between 28W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W-46W, from 02N to 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the wave, from 07N to 13N between 45W and 54W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W from 00N-18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the wave to the east and north of Jamaica, while scattered moderate to strong convection is along the monsoon trough between Colombia and 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast Africa near 20N16W to 10N37W to 10N45W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 07N59W to 06N58W. No significant convection is noted aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high entered near 28N93W. Overnight scatterometer data depicted light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the whole area, with seas ranging between 2-4 ft. Scattered strong convection occurring over land also extends northward across the central Bay of Campeche south of 20N. The weak high pressure ridge will persist over the N Gulf this week, maintaining gentle flow across much of the region, while moderate winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche pulse to fresh each late afternoon through night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave over the central part of the basin. Scattered moderate to strong convection persists across the waters from 18N-20N from north of Jamaica to 82W. To the south, the EPAC monsoon trough extends along 10N between 75W-83W where active convection prevails. Overnight scatterometer data depicted gentle to moderate trades across the basin except south of 15N between 66W-72W, where moderate to fresh easterly winds were noted. The Bermuda High north of the area along with the typical eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough to Colombia will contribute toward fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean from today through Fri. Elsewhere winds and seas are at or below normal. No tropical cyclone formation is expected in these waters for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Isaias and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered moderate convection continues over the northwest waters W of 74W, extending from the southern periphery of Isaias. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N65W to 24N71W will move NW across the area waters today then weaken tonight and Wed. Associated convection has become scattered across the north end of the trough from 27N-29N between 65W and 86W. Surface ridging extends from the NE Atlantic southwestward and south of the front to 60W, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 37N21W. High seas north of 29N associated with Tropical Storm Isaias will shift northward and exit the waters west of 75W, allowing seas to gradually subside there today through tonight. Weak troughing will linger across the waters north of 25N and west of 50W through Fri, leading to gentle to moderate winds across most of the area waters. Meanwhile moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, with seas 4-7 ft. $$ Stripling