000 AXNT20 KNHC 040552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM Tue Aug 04 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum sustained winds of 75 kt or 85 mph (140 km/h). At 04/0300 UTC, Isaias was centered near 33.8N 78.5W or about 22 nm ENE of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina moving NNE at 19 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted north of 31N between 75W-80W. Maximum seas expected with this system can reach 26 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move across eastern North Carolina for the rest of the night. The center move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern United States Tuesday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from 03N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The majority of this wave is embedded with deep tropical moisture associated with the African monsoon trough that extends into the eastern Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-14N between 18W-23W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from 02N-18N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within deep tropical moisture also associated with the monsoon trough in that area of the Atlantic. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis mainly south of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on current satellite signature and wave diagnostics data. The wave's axis is analyzed along 45W from 00N-16N. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis and within 45 nm on either size of it. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W from 00N-19N. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between 73W-78W. There are scattered showers in the vicinity of the northern portion of the wave also. This activity is enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast Africa near 20N16W to 10N30W to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 07N49W to 06N58W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough and along the whole ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, ancjored by a 1015 mb high centered near 28N93W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the whole area, with seas ranging between 2-4 ft. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted over the Bay of Campeche, moving west with the thermal trough that develops across the Yucatan peninsula every night. This activity will dissipate during the morning hours. The weak high pressure ridge will persist over the N Gulf this week, maintaining gentle flow across much of the region with moderate winds expected in the southwestern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave over the central part of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail north of 18N and west of 75W enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft. To the south, the EPAC monsoon trough extends along 10N between 75W-83W enhancing shower activity across this area. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin except south of 15N between 66W-72W, where moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted. The Bermuda High north of the area along with the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough will contribute toward fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent. No tropical cyclone formation is expected in these waters for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Isaias and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers are noted over the west Atlantic mainly west of 74W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N65W to 24N65W. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so from this trough, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant tropical development. A stationary front enters out area from 31N51W to 29N59W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 22N50W. Large seas north of 29N associated with Hurricane Isaias will spread northward across the waters west of 75W during the next few hours and then gradually subside late tonight through Tue night. The trough along 65W will move NW across the west Atlantic through today. $$ ERA