000 AXNT20 KNHC 031729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 30.7N 80.1W at 03/1500 UTC, or about 80 nm ESE of Brunswick, Georgia, moving N at 11 kt. The minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maximum seas in the area of the storm are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle and 120 nm NW quad. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the coasts of NE South Carolina and southern North Carolina this evening. Isaias is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane prior to landfall on the coast of the Carolinas. The center will then move along the coast of the mid- Atlantic states on Tuesday as a tropical storm. Marine conditions across the NE Florida waters are expected to gradually improve tonight through Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. A surface trough with a 1014 mb low near 24N64W is producing disorganized showers and tstorms from 23N-26N between 63W-66W. Environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of the system during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form later this week. This system is forecast to move NW at about 10-15 kt over the southwest Atlantic today and on Tuesday, and then stall several hundred nm SW of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to the analysis with axis along 16/17W from 19N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 15W-20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 19N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-12N between 28W-34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from 02N-15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis from 05N-07N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65/66W from 04N-18N is moving west at 10-15 kt. Showers and tstorms are occurring inland over Venezuela, but not over water. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 19N to Colombia. The wave is moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen north of 15.5N and between Haiti and Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 09N33W to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N50W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm south of the monsoon trough between 20W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1016 mb high near 25N90W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 23N and west of 86W. Moderate winds are in the NE Gulf. Seas are ranging between 2-4 ft across the basin. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the Bay of Campeche, south of 20N between 92.5W-96W. Moderate N to NW winds will continue across the NE Gulf today as Tropical Storm Isaias moves north-northeastward near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. A weak high pressure ridge will persist over the N Gulf this week, maintaining gentle flow across much of the region with moderate winds expected in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Mid- to upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the NW Caribbean. A weak surface trough extends from the western tip of Cuba to Belize. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Over the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection south of 10N between 76W-83W. A few showers are seen just S of the Dominican Republic as a result of an inverted N-S oriented upper-level trough located along 70W. A recent ASCAT pass depicts fresh trades across much of the eastern Caribbean between 64W-73W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The Bermuda High north of the area along with the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough will contribute toward fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean from Tue through Fri. Elsewhere winds and seas are forecast to remain quiescent through the end of this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN Refer to the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Isaias and the low near 24N64W. A tail of moisture containing a line of scattered showers and tstorms extends S from T.S. Isaias from 30N78W to 27N79W to near Ft. Lauderdale Florida. A 03/1444 UTC ASCAT pass shows that winds over 25 kt in association with the circulation of Isaias are north of 26.5N and west of 74.5W. A N-S oriented upper-level trough extends along 70W from the Caribbean to 31N, enhancing isolated showers and tstorms from 23N-28N between 66W-73W. A 1021 mb high is centered W of Bermuda near 33N68W. A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N52W and extends to 31N58W. Scattered showers are along and just ahead of the front. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high east of the Azores near 38N22W to a 1022 mb high near 27N48W. Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane near 33.1N 79.2W this evening, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 37.2N 77.0W Tue morning. Large seas north of 27N west of 75W associated with Isaias will continue today, then gradually subside late tonight through Tue night. $$ Hagen