000 AXNT20 KNHC 031010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 610 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 29.7N 79.9W at 0900 UTC, or about 115 miles east southeast of Jacksonville, Florida, moving N at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maximum seas in the area of the storm are near 26 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 28N-32N between 77W- 81W. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through this afternoon and then accelerate and move inland tonight near the South Carolina- North Carolina border, and then N-NE inland across coastal portions of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday. Marine conditions across the NE Florida waters are expected to improve quickly late this evening through tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The northern portion of a tropical wave along 65W has sheared away from the wave and is moving NW across the waters north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands this morning. A 1014 mb surface low is analyzed near 21N64W. Clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 21N-27N between 60W-64W. This activity has decreased during the past few hours and the system does not appear to be very well organized at the surface at this time. However, environmental conditions are expected to allow some slow development of the system to occur during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. The system is forecast to move northwestward over the western Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday before it stalls southwest of Bermuda by the end of the week. With this, the low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W from 01N-18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11.5N between 24W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 02N-15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is found related to this wave near the ITCZ associated with this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W from 06N- 21N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between 63W-65W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W south of 19N to northeast Colombia. The wave is moving west at about 10 kt. No significant convection associated with this wave is seen. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 10N29W to 10N45W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave from 08N48W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough between 24W and the African coast. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb high centered near 27N89W. With this, light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 24N and west of 86W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are ranging between 2-4 ft across the basin. Moderate winds will continue across the NE Gulf waters this morning as T.S. Isaias continues moving northward near the east coast of Florida. A weak high pressure ridge will persist over the northern Gulf this week, maintaining gentle flow across much of the region with moderate winds expected in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for details on the Special Features low and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Overnight convection across the Greater Antilles has shifted westward and over the adjacent Caribbean waters of the islands early this morning. A surface trough extends from 22N86W to 16N88W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin, except west of 77W, where light to gentle winds are noted. A surface trough moving across the Atlantic waters N of the Leeward Islands will increase winds and seas slightly over the Tropical N Atlantic waters N of 15N and E of 65W today. Fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean waters are expected to strengthen by midweek following the passage of a tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN Refer to the sections above for more details on T.S. Isaias, the Special Features low, and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N48W. The pressure gradient across the area is allowing for light to moderate winds throughout, except for fresh to strong winds in the western part of the area on the periphery of T.S. Isaias. Seas range from 5-8 ft, except for much higher seas in the range of 8-16 ft within the area of 20- 33 kt winds in the western part of the area outside the tropical storm force winds. T.S. Isaias will continue northward and near the east coast of NE Florida this morning then accelerate N-NE away from the forecast waters. Large seas associated with Isaias will spread northward across the waters W of 75W today, then gradually subside late tonight through Tue night. A low pressure trough associated with a tropical wave will move NW across the west- central Atlantic waters today through Wed. Environmental conditions are conducive for development during the next few days as this system moves northwestward, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. $$ Stripling