000 AXNT20 KNHC 030542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 AM Mon Aug 03 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 28.5N 79.8W at 03/0300 UTC, or about 44 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, moving NNW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maximum seas in the area of the storm are expected to reach 26 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 25N-32N between 76W-82W. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through tonight. Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave with axis along 65W helped develop a surface low currently centered near 20N61W. Scattered showers are noted within the low from 19N-23N between 60W-63W. This activity has decreased during the past few hours and the system does not appear to be very well organized at the surface at this time. However, environmental conditions are expected to allow some slow development of the system to occur during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. The system is forecast to move northwestward over the western Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday before it stalls southwest of Bermuda by the end of the week. With this, the low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from 01N-18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N between 18W-28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 02N-15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. At this time, no significant convection is related to this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W from 06N- 21N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W south of 19N to northeast Colombia. The wave is moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the southern portion of the wave affecting Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 10N29W to 10N42W. The ITCZ begins west o a tropical wave from 10N47W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 30W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb high centered near 28N91W. With this, light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 24N and west of 86W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are ranging between 2-4 ft across the basin. Moderate winds will continue near the west coast of Florida through early Mon as T.S. Isaias continues moving northward near the east coast of Florida. A weak high pressure ridge will persist over the northern Gulf this week, maintaining gentle flow across much of the region with moderate winds expected in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for details on the Special Features low and the tropical waves moving across the basin. The proximity of T.S. Isaias to the north is enhancing convection across the far northwest Caribbean affecting Cuba and adjacent waters mainly west of 75W. A surface trough extends from 21N86W to 16N85W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin, except west of 77W, where light to gentle winds are noted. A surface trough moving across the Atlantic waters N of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico will increase winds and seas slightly over the Tropical N Atlantic waters N of 15N and E of 64W tonight, then pass N of the area on Mon. Fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean waters are expected to strengthen by midweek following the passage of a tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN Refer to the sections above for more details on T.S. Isaias, the Special Features low, and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N48W. The pressure gradient across the area is allowing for light to moderate winds throughout, except for fresh to strong winds in the western part of the area on the periphery of T.S. Isaias. Seas range from 5-8 ft, except for much higher seas in the range of 8-12 ft within the area of 20- 33 kt winds in the western part of the area outside the tropical storm force winds. T.S. Isaias will continue northward and near the east coast of Florida overnight and Mon then accelerate N-NE away from the forecast waters. Large seas associated with Isaias will spread northward across the waters W of 75W through Mon, then gradually subside late Mon night through Tue night. A low pressure trough associated with a tropical wave will approach the west-central Atlantic waters tonight. Environmental conditions are conducive for development during the next few days as this system moves northwestward, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. $$ ERA