000 AXNT20 KNHC 021003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 26.3N 79.5W at 0900 UTC or about 45 nm east-northeast of Fort Lauderdale, moving NW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Satellite imagery depicts scattered to numerous moderate convection south of 29N across Bahamas near 22N between 76W-80W. A north-northwest motion is expected today, which will take the center of Isaias along or very near the east coast of Florida, before accelerating northward Monday and exiting the area waters Mon night. Isaias appears to have missed its opportunity overnight to re-strengthen to a hurricane and will remain a strong tropical storm through Mon. Large seas and strong and very rough surf will spread from south central Florida northward ahead of Isaias through Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 19W-20W from 04N- 18N, moving westward near 15 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis between 16W-22W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 01N to 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave axis between 32W- 38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W from 04N- 23N, moving west at 15 kt. Since this wave is still within close proximity to an upper-level trough to its northwest, the convection has been enhanced. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-23N between 55W-63W. This system is forecast to move through environmental conditions that will favor development within the next couple of days. A tropical depression could form from it early next week. Please monitor the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks for future updates on this system. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W to 10N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and south of the boundaries to 00N. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf with a 1015 mb high analyzed near 28N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted in scatterometer data over most of the basin, except south of 26N and east of 87W where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Scattered moderate convection is along the coasts of Texas and Mexico and moving offshore reaching the northwest Gulf waters. Observed wave heights throughout the basin remain in the 2-3 ft range. Mainly gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through the middle of next week as weak high pressure over the northern Gulf drifts southward. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the northwestern Caribbean from 22N82W to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm west of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northwest Caribbean related to T.S. Isaias. This activity covers from north of 17N and is between 69W-78W. Fresh trade winds will persist over the central Caribbean waters through the middle of next week. A tropical wave will bring increased winds and seas to the basin E of 65W tonight through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Isaias, Tropical Depression Ten, and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 29N49W. The pressure gradient in place generally supports light to moderate winds across the area, with the exception of fresh to strong winds over the waters south of 27N and west of 70W. Wave heights range 5-8 ft across most of the area, with higher wave heights of 7-12 ft seas in the SW northern Atlantic outside of the Bahamas and are associated with T.S. Isaias. Tropical Storm Isaias will begin to move N-NW today and move along and very near the east coast of Florida, reaching reaching near 28.8N 80.6W Sun night, and near 33.7N 79.1W Mon night.Large seas will persist today near and offshore of the Bahamas and extending across the waters of SE Florida. These seas will spread northward across the waters W of 75W through Mon. Low pressure developing along the N portion of a tropical wave is expected to become better organized as it approaches the SE waters Sun night and could become the next tropical cyclone early this week as it moves NW across the outer waters. $$ Stripling