000 AXNT20 KNHC 020516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 AM Sun Aug 02 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 25.5N 79.1W at 02/0300 UTC or about 70 nm east-southeast of Fort Lauderdale, moving NW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Satellite imagery depicts scattered to numerous moderate convection south of 29N between 76W-80W reaching the northwest Caribbean. A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north- northwestward motion by late Sunday. Some restrengthening is possible, and Isaias could regain hurricane strength early Sunday. Slow weakening is expected on Sunday night and continue through Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. Latest scatterometer data confirmed that the system earlier called T.D. Ten has no well-defined center. Winds associated with this system have decreased to 20 kt or less, and no deep convection is noted with it. The tropical depression has dissipated, and the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The last position at 0300 UTC was 19.5N/25.0W. Please read the last NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis extending along 18W from 04N-18N. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis between 16W-22W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 01N to 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave axis between 34W-37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W from 04N- 23N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Since this wave is still within close proximity to an upper-level trough to its northwest, the convection has been enhanced. Scattered moderate convection is north of 16N between 54W-65W. This system is forecast to move through environmental conditions that will favor for it to develop within the next couple of days. A tropical depression could form from it early next week. Please monitor the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks for future updates on this system. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W to 10N27W to 10N41W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N56W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted along and south of the boundaries to 00N. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf with a 1015 mb high analyzed near 27N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted in scatterometer data over most of the basin, except south of 26N and east of 87W where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Scattered moderate convection is developing along the coasts of Texas and Mexico and moving offshore reaching the northwest Gulf waters. Observed wave heights throughout the basin remain in the 2-3 ft range. Mainly gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through the middle of next week as weak high pressure over the northern Gulf drifts southward. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the northwestern Caribbean from 22N81W to 11N84W. No significant convection is related to this trough at this time. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northwest Caribbean related to T.S. Isaias. This activity covers from north of 17N and west of 72W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Fresh trade winds will persist over the central Caribbean waters through the middle of next week. A tropical wave will bring increased winds and seas to the basin E of 60W tonight through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Isaias, Tropical Depression Ten, and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 30N47W. The pressure gradient in place generally supports light to moderate winds across the area, with the exception of fresh to strong winds over the waters south of 27N and west of 70W. Wave heights range 5-8 ft across most of the area, with higher wave heights of 7-12 ft seas in the SW northern Atlantic outside the tropical storm force winds associated with T.S. Isaias. Tropical Storm Isaias will begin to move N-NW overnight and strengthen to a hurricane as it moves along and very near the east coast of Florida, reaching near 26.6N 79.9W Sun morning, near 28.0N 80.5W Sun evening afternoon. Isaias will weaken to a tropical storm on Mon morning and accelerate northward and move to near 32.0N 80.0W Mon evening, and exit the area waters Tue. Large seas will persist tonight near and offshore of the Bahamas, then spread northward across the waters W of 75W through Mon. Low pressure developing along the N portion of a tropical wave is expected to become better organized as it approaches the SE waters Sun night and could become the next tropical cyclone early this week as it moves NW across the outer waters. $$ ERA