000 AXNT20 KNHC 011035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Isaias is moving through the Central Bahamas, centered near 23.9N 77.0W 988 mb at 0900 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 nm/55 km from the center. Tropical storm- force winds extend outward up to 150 nm/280 km from the center.This position also is about 80 mi/125 km to the SSE of Nassau, Bahamas, and 210 mi/335 km to the SSE of Freeport on Grand Bahama Island. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms are within 240 nm of the center of Isaias, and also extend eastward in clusters to 72W. Several long squall lines of shallow convection have moved NW ahead of the core of the hurricane overnight, and across the Straits of Florida and into SE Florida, producing winds gusts of 30-40 kt. Isaias will move through the NW Bahamas this afternoon, then begin to veer N-NW and move near the SE coast of Florida, reaching near 26.3N 79.2W tonight, then continue northward and just offshore of the east coast of Florida, reaching near 29.1N 80.3W Sun night. Isaias will then accelerate and exit the area Mon afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 21.6 West, moving toward the northwest near 16 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Ten is forecast to weaken after the next 24 hours or so and then dissipate by 36 hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm NW of the center of Ten. Please read the latest Tropical Depression Ten NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Associated convection remains near the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave from 15N to 20N between 52W and 57W. A tropical wave is moving through the southern Gulf of Mexico, along 93W, from 21N southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection dots the Bay of Campeche on either side of this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the southwest of Tropical Depression TEN, from 13N25W to 09N54W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N54W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection noted off Africa from 06N to 11N east of 18W to the coast. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 04N to 10.5N between 27W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Generally tranquil conditions prevail across the Gulf this morning. A 1016 mb high pressure center is over the NE Gulf near 27N86W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Hurricane Isaias is moving NW through the Central Bahamas near 23.9N 77.0W 988 mb at 0900 UTC and will move through the Central and NW Bahamas today, then track northward and near the east coast of Florida tonight through Sun night. Mainly gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through early next week as weak high pressure persists over the northern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from well to the SW of Isaias from western Jamaica to 14N81W. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are to the northwest of the trough from near western Jamaica to eastern Cuba. Widely scattered moderate convection is also across the northern Gulf of Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel along 21N. Moderate to fresh E to SE tradewinds prevail across the Caribbean Basin east of the surface trough, and area producing peak seas of 7-8 ft north of the A-B-C islands and the Gulf of Venezuela. The fresh tradewind flow from the Gulf of Venezuela to Hispaniola this morning will diminish late this afternoon. A tropical wave will bring increasing winds and seas to the waters N of 15N and E of 60W late tonight through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. Broken to overcast high level clouds are spiraling away from the area of Hurricane ISAIAS. Those clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 60W westward. A narrow surface ridge extends from the NE Atlantic SW into central portions along 30N and then westward to offshore of N Florida. Moderate to locally fresh tradewinds cover the tropical Atlantic from about 14N to 25N where seas are 5-7 ft. Hurricane Isaias is moving through the Central Bahamas this morning, centered near 23.9N 77.0W 988 mb at 0900 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Isaias will move through the NW Bahamas this afternoon, then begin to veer N-NW and move near the SE coast of Florida, reaching near 26.3N 79.2W tonight, then continue northward and just offshore of the east coast of Florida, reaching near 29.1N 80.3W Sun night. Isaias will then accelerate and exit the area Mon afternoon. Very large seas in SE swell are expected over a large portion of the SW North Atlantic waters near and offshore of the Bahamas today and spread northward across the waters W of 75W tonight through Sun night, then move N of the region early next week. $$ Stripling