000 AXNT20 KNHC 010601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane ISAIAS, at 01/0600 UTC, is near 23.5N 76.7W. This position also is about 115 mi/185 km to the SSE of Nassau in the Bahamas, and 245 mi/395 km to the SSE of Freeport on Grand Bahama Island. ISAIAS is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the N quadrant, and from 120 nm to 240 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong is in SE Cuba from 20N to 21N between 76W and 77W. Strong winds and heavy rain continue in the central Bahamas. ISAIAS is expected to approach the SE coast of Florida on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 nm/55 km from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 nm/280 km from the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Depression TEN, at 01/0300 UTC, is near 17.1N 21.1W. TEN is about 180 nm/330 km to the ENE of the Cabo Verde Islands. TEN is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong was within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant from 31/2200 UTC until shortly after 01/0000 UTC. The cloud top temperatures have been warming, and the precipitation has been weakening with time. Broken to overcast convective debris clouds are within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. TEN is forecast to start to weaken after the next 24 hours or so. TEN is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Depression Ten NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 12N to 20N between 46W and 56W. Any other nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 91W/92W, from 21N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 23N southward from 87W westward, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is being broken up Tropical Depression TEN. The monsoon trough is along 13N25W 12N30W 11N40W 10N50W 09N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to south of the monsoon trough between 25W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 200 nm of the coast of Africa from 05N to 10N. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N northward from 90W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of cyclonic wind flow. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N91W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Hurricane Isaias is centered across the Central Bahamas near 23.3N 76.4W 987 mb at 0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Isaias will move through the Central and NW Bahamas tonight and Sat, then track northward and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Sat afternoon through Sun night. Mainly gentle winds will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico through early next week, as weak high pressure persists in the northern Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 20N77W to 14N80W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in SE Cuba from 20N to 21N between 76W and 77W; isolated moderate is in the westernmost sections of Jamaica. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W westward, to the coastal waters of Central America from Nicaragua southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Colombia and Venezuela, from 07N to the coast of Colombia between Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela and 77W in Colombia. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 74W westward. An upper level inverted trough extends from the Grand Cayman Island into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N northward from 80W westward. Hurricane Isaias is moving through the Central Bahamas tonight, centered near 23.3N 76.4W 987 mb at 0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Isaias will continue NW through the Central Bahamas overnight; then veer N-NW through the NW Bahamas and just offshore of S Florida Sat; move parallel to the central and north Florida coast Sat night through Sun night; and away from the region. Fresh to strong wind flow will persist to the south of Hispaniola tonight, and then diminish on Saturday. A trough will bring increased wind speeds and sea heights to the waters that are to the N of 15N and E of 60W late Saturday night and Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the area of cyclonic wind flow. Broken to overcast high level clouds are spiraling away from the area of Hurricane ISAIAS. Those clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 60W westward. Hurricane Isaias is moving through the Central Bahamas tonight, centered near 23.3N 76.4W 987 mb at 0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Isaias will move through the NW Bahamas Sat morning; then begin to veer N-NW and move near the SE coast of Florida; reaching near 25.9N 79.1W Sat evening; then continue northward and just offshore of the east coast of Florida; reaching near 28.5N 80.5W Sun evening; then weaken to a tropical storm near 30.2N 80.5W on Monday morning. Isaias will accelerate, and exit the area on Monday afternoon. Very large seas in SE swell are expected in a large part of the SW North Atlantic Ocean near and offshore of the Bahamas, from tonight into Saturday. Swell associated with Isaias will spread northward across the waters W of 75W, from Saturday night through Sunday night, then move N of the region early next week. $$ mt