000 AXNT20 KNHC 310005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2256 UTC Thu Jul 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 30/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 19.5N 70.6W, or about 135 nm WNW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, moving NW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 18N to 22N between 67W and 72W. Scattered moderate convection is in bands elsewhere from 14N to 24N between 65W and 75W. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday or Friday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. A tropical wave associated with a 1009 mb low near 13N21W is generating scattered moderate convection from 08N to 15N between 17W and 29W. The area of low pressure associated with the wave, which is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized during the day. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it drifts generally north- northwestward. After that time, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone withing the next two to five days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 02N to 20N with axis near 41W, moving W at 20 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave as it is being influenced by the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer and strong wind shear. A tropical wave is S of 20N with axis near 84W, moving W at 20 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave as it is being influenced by dry air and strong wind shear. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 11N27W to 11N37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 30W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 19.5N 70.6W 1003 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Fri night and move near or over the NW Bahamas and near South Florida on Sat, then remain east of the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting mainly gentle winds across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to near gale force SE winds are affecting the eastern Caribbean waters as Tropical Storm Isaias continues to move across Hispaniola. NE winds of similar magnitude are affecting the Windward passage while fresh NE to E winds are over Cuba adjacent waters. Tropical Storm Isaias is near 19.5N 70.6W 1003 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Isaias will move to 20.8N 72.7W Fri morning, 22.7N 75.1W Fri afternoon, then strengthen to a hurricane Sat morning while moving NW away from the region. Tropical storm conditions and large seas will develop tonight in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong flow will persist south of Hispaniola into Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Isaias near 19.5N 70.6W 1003 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Isaias will move to 20.8N 72.7W Fri morning, 22.7N 75.1W Fri afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.5N 77.1W Sat morning, 26.1N 78.5W Sat afternoon, 27.7N 79.5W Sun morning, and 29.2N 79.7W Sun afternoon. Isaias will change little in intensity as it moves to near 33.3N 78.0W Mon afternoon. Very large seas are expected over a large portion of the SW North Atlantic waters as the center of Isaias moves near the SE Bahamas by late tonight. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Fri night and move near or over the NW Bahamas and near South Florida on Sat. $$ Ramos