000 AXNT20 KNHC 291027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1026 UTC Wed Jul 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered near 15.3N 61.3W at 29/0900 UTC near Dominica moving WNW at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. PTC Nine remains a very elongated system from SSW to NNE across the Lesser Antilles. Most of the winds are well north of the low level center, with seas to 18 ft seas building in the Atlantic waters northeast of the Leeward Islands. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the northwest semicircle of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, from 21N southward, moving W 15 knots. No significant convection is observed near the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from northeast Colombia to Haiti, moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. The northern portion of a tropical wave along 86W/87W through the Gulf of Honduras, south of 18N. This wave is moving W 15 knots. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to 07N36W to 10N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 13N between 17W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 36W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the northern Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the basin, except for fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the coast of Veracruz this morning, generated by moist, convergent flow in the low levels and upper diffluence in the easterly flow aloft. No significant convection is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, little change through Sat. Beyond that, much will depend on the track and intensity of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, now moving into the eastern Caribbean. Nine may approach the Florida Straits and far southeast Gulf by Sat and Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are ongoing elsewhere. A few showers are noted from western Panama to near the Corn Islands off Nicaragua. Otherwise no significant convection is evident west of the activity over the eastern Caribbean. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring tropical storm conditions to the northeastern Caribbean Sea today and tonight. Strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage to Jamaica by early Thu morning. Winds and seas will largely diminish over the eastern Caribbean Fri, except for an area of swell to at least 8 ft that will penetrate through the Mona Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extending east to west along roughly 30N is supporting fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 22N west of 65W, and gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere over open waters west of 65W. The ridge will lift north ahead of the advance of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Strong to near gale force winds and seas to 18 ft are already impacting the Atlantic waters within 480 nm northeast of the Leeward Islands, to the north of Nine. This swath of dangerous winds and seas will sweep to the west-northwest toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Thu, and into the central and northern Bahamas through Fri to include the adjacent offshore waters. Winds and seas will diminish through Sat as the center axis of Nine shifts west of the area. Elsewhere farther east, the subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic basin, generally supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 22N, and gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft north of 22N. The exception is off the west coast of Africa where fresh to strong NW winds and 8 ft seas persist at least through today. $$ Christensen