000 AXNT20 KNHC 290612 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE, at 29/0600 UTC, is near 14.9N 60.3W. This position also is about 43 nm/80 km to the ENE of Martinique, and about 391 nm to the ESE of San Juan in Puerto Rico. The Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 22 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 250 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. A Tropical storm WATCH has been issued for The Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions are nearing the Leeward Islands. It is possible that heavy rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in: the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, from tonight through early Thursday. Expect tropical storm force winds, hazardous seas, and heavy rain squalls, in the NE Caribbean Sea, on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 22N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72w, from Hispaniola southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Isolated moderate is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 11N southward, in parts of Venezuela and Colombia. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N to 20N between SE Cuba and Central America. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W westward, to the coastal waters of Central America from Nicaragua southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward between central Panama and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 16N17W, to 14N20W to 09N30W, 07N40W, and 09N50W. Precipitation: Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 75 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 35W and 40W; scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 20W eastward, and within 60 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 42W and 50W; isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 17N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near the border area of the Deep South of Texas and NE Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N southward from 90W westward. An upper level inverted trough extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the north central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the area is covered by upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, and weakening but still lingering rainshowers, are within 240 nm of the coast of the U.S.A., from SW Florida to the upper Texas Gulf coast. Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE near 14.6N 59.4W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. NINE will move to 15.7N 62.3W on Wednesday morning; while likely becoming a tropical storm. A surface ridge will dominate the rest of the Gulf of Mexico waters through Friday, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N to 20N between SE Cuba and Central America. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W westward, to the coastal waters of Central America from Nicaragua southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward between central Panama and 85W. Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE near 14.6N 59.4W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. NINE will move to 15.7N 62.3W Wed morning; 17.4N 65.9W Wed evening; inland to 18.7N 69.3W Thu morning; 20.1N 72.6W Thu evening; 21.5N 75.5W Fri morning; and 22.8N 77.7W on Friday evening. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected, from Wednesday night through Thursday night, across the Windward Passage and Cuba's adjacent waters. Fresh trade winds will prevail in Colombia's adjacent waters, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions today to the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, to the east of the Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to the waters near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas, from Wednesday night through Friday. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 240 nm to the ENE of the border of NE Florida and SE Georgia. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N and the NW Bahamas northward from 70W westward. Upper-level divergence is enhancing scattered showers and isolated storms well east of Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE near 14.6N 59.4W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. NINE will move to 15.7N 62.3W on Wednesday morning; 17.4N 65.9W Wed evening; inland to 18.7N 69.3W on Thursday morning; 20.1N 72.6W Thu evening; 21.5N 75.5W Fri morning; and 22.8N 77.7W on Friday evening. Heavy rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Greater Antilles' adjacent waters, through early in the weekend. $$ mt