922 AXNT20 KNHC 282354 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 711 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Updated Special Features Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered near 14.2N 58.7W at 28/0000 UTC or 300 nm SE of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. An earlier ASCAT pass shows a large area of 25-35 kt winds extending out 360 nm north and northeast of the low center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 11N-17N between 52W-63W, including over Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands. The disturbance has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm before it reaches the Leeward Islands early Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight through early Thu. Expect tropical storm force winds, hazardous seas and heavy squalls over the NE Caribbean Wed and Wed night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis through the Cabo Verde Islands along 26W, south of 21N is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N-15N where the wave meets the monsoon trough. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W from 05N-21N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection about 200 nm east side of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean along 83W, south of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave from 10N-17N between 80W-85W, including over eastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Senegal near 15N16W to 08N30W to 11N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N-15N between 16W-20W, and from 05N-11N between 32W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is centered near the coast of southern Texas. As a result, upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection over the west-central Gulf west of 90W. Surface trough is noted from 20N96W to 23N96W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 19N-23N between 93W-96W. The sea breeze appears to be enhancing scattered moderate tstorms firing up along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend. Similar sea breeze convection is along the coast and a few miles inland between Corpus Christi Texas and Lake Charles Louisiana. Surface ridging prevails over the eastern and central Gulf. Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night and dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds associated with this trough swill affect the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters and the SW basin through this period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to the northeastern Caribbean Wed and Wed night. See the Special Features section above for details. Two tropical waves are currently bringing showers and tstorms to portions of the basin. See the Tropical Waves section for details. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades occurring over much of the basin. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.7N 79.0W Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected Wed night through Thu night across the Windward Passage and Cuba adjacent waters. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail over Colombia adjacent waters and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions today to the Tropical N Atlantic waters east of the Caribbean. The system is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to the waters near the Greater Antilles and Bahamas Wed night through Fri. See the Special Features section above for more details on this system. Upper-level divergence is enhancing scattered showers and isolated storms well east of northern Florida and north of the NW Bahamas from 28N-32N between 73W-80W. A surface ridge extending from the Azores to a 1025 mb high near 29N46W to southern Florida is keeping benign weather across the remainder of the basin. Fresh winds are expected south of 25N and west of 65W through tonight, increasing to strong north of Hispaniola. Strong winds and building seas associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will begin to affect the Leeward and adjacent Atlantic waters tonight. These conditions will shift westward across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage early on Wed and continue through Thu evening. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the Bahamas, Turk and Caicos, and the Greater Antilles adjacent waters during that period. $$ MTorres/Hagen/Lewitsky