000 AXNT20 KNHC 280448 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1248 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1008 mb near 13N48W is along the axis of a tropical wave. The low is moving W at 15 to 20 kt and is producing broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 05N-17N between 43W-58W. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt and approaches the Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area on Tuesday. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands, along 22W, from 04N to 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 09N-11N between 22W-26W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from the Virgin Islands to Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 63W-66W. A strong tropical wave has entered the western Caribbean along 79W, south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. Fresh to strong east winds are associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N24W to 10N36W to a 1008 mb low near 12N48W to 07N54W. In addition to convection previously mentioned in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-12N between 26W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer low pressure is centered over southern Louisiana, helping to produce a broad area of scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 86N-95W. Isolated moderate convection is over the E Gulf and Florida E of 86W. Gentle winds are observed over the E Gulf. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the SW Gulf, south of 25N and west of 90W. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will be associated with this trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin and the ones approaching the area. Moderate to fresh trades cover most of the basin, with locally strong winds occurring in the Windward Passages and Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted over NE Costa Rica, eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. A broad area of low pressure remains over the tropical Atlantic, about 700 nm east of the Windward Islands. Conditions are expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during that time frame. It could begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the broad low pressure over the tropical Atlantic. An E-W surface ridge axis extends across the basin from a 1025 mb high near 30N39W to central Florida. Gentle wind speeds prevail from 24N-32N between 55W-80W. A surface ridge will dominate the western Atlantic, supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage at night through the forecast period. A broad area of low pressure remains over the tropical Atlantic, about 700 nm east of the Windward Islands. Conditions are expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during that time frame. It could begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Wednesday. This system is forecast to bring an increase in winds and seas. $$ Formosa