000 AXNT20 KNHC 262256 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 656 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Hanna is centered near 25.6N 100.6W at 26/2100 UTC or 30 nm WSW of Monterrey Mexico moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Hanna weakened from a tropical storm into a tropical depression early this afternoon. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends eastward from Hanna to impact areas of the Gulf of Mexico within about 60 nm of the coast of South Texas and NE Mexico. Winds and seas have fallen below 20 kts and 8 ft, respectively, over area waters, and any remaining impacts from Tropical Depression Hanna will end tonight. Hanna will continue to weaken and move away from the area, farther into NE Mexico, and become a remnant low Mon morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Broad low pressure of 1010 mb and its associated tropical wave center near 11N38W this afternoon. The system is moving W at 15 to 20 kt, and is producing scattered moderate to strong convection from 06N to 14N between 32W and 46W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next two to three days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 58W 05N to 22N is approaching the Leeward Islands this evening. It is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis from 12N-17N. A strong tropical wave is analyzed in the Caribbean along 72W from South America to Hispaniola, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 11N-16N between 69W-75W. This wave is accompanied by east winds of 20 to 30 kt. A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 86W from 22N southward is beginning to move into Central America and the eastern Pacific. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection with this wave is located in the Yucatan Channel. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 16N16W and extends to a 1010 mb low near 11N38W to 10N54W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Special Features section above, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen off the coast of Africa from 06N-12N between 13W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Hanna. Deep layer lift is inducing numerous moderate to scattered strong thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico from 26N to 31N between 87W and 94W. A band of scattered moderate convection extends southward from this activity along 87W, into the Yucatan Channel. Where high pressure is more dominate in the eastern Gulf, gentle to moderate SE winds are occurring, whereas front to strong winds prevail over the western Gulf. These winds over the western Gulf will continue through at least Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Fresh trades cover most of the remainder of the basin, except for gentle winds in the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong SE winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras into Wed. Low pressure, currently near 11N38W, is likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before approaching the Lesser Antilles by the middle of the week. This system will likely increase winds and seas across the NE Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on low pressure move west through the central tropical Atlantic. Deep-layer but rather weak low pressure is centered 100 nm or so off the NE Florida coast. Scattered moderate convection extends N of 27N and W of 75W. Elsewhere, a broad E-W oriented surface ridge extends along 31N between 30W- 70W, leading to light to gentle wind speeds from 24N- 32N between 50W-72W. A surface ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage at night through the forecast period. Expect increasing winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles as the low approaches the Caribbean. $$ KONARIK