000 AXNT20 KNHC 261734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hanna is centered over northeast Mexico near 26.1N 99.7W as of 26/1500 UTC, or about 80 nm W of McAllen Texas. This position is more than 120 nm inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Hanna is moving to the WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection extends out 150 nm in the NE quad, 210 nm SE quad and 150 nm SW quad. Hanna has been producing extremely heavy rainfall over portions of NE Mexico and far south Texas. Tamaulipas Mexico recorded 167.6 mm...6.60 inches...of rain during the 24 hour period ending at 1200 UTC this morning. Winds over the waters of the west-central Gulf of Mexico have decreased to 25 kt or less. Seas have diminished to 11 ft or less, and will continue to diminish today. Hanna is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by this evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is along 36W with a 1010 mb low along the wave near 11N36W. This system is moving W at 15-20 kt and is producing a wide area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 07N-13N between 33W-44W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next few days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 56W from 05N-22N is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis from 12N-17N. The remnants of T.D. Gonzalo are analyzed as a tropical wave in the Caribbean along 69W from 08N-17N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 11N-16N between 68W-75W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong winds from 12N-16.5N between 67W-73W, with locally near gale force in the strongest convection. A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 85W from 22N southward is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis, including over the Yucatan Channel. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 16N17W and extends to a 1010 mb low near 11N36W to 10N50W. The ITCZ extends from 10N50W to 09N54W. Aside from convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen off the coast of Africa from 06N-12N between 13W-23W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Hanna. Strong upper-level diffluence over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is enhancing numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 27N-31N between 87W-93W. Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere north of 25N. A western Caribbean tropical wave is enhancing showers and tstorms in the Yucatan Channel. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate E-SE winds in the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are over portions of the west-central and southwest Gulf. The pressure gradient between Hanna and a ridge across the remainder of the Gulf waters will support fresh to strong SE winds over the western Gulf through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Fresh trades cover most of the remainder of the basin, except for gentle winds in the far SW Caribbean. Isolated moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. An upper-level low over the central Caribbean is enhancing convection associated with the remnants of Gonzalo. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. A strong tropical wave, currently located along 36W, is likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before approaching the Lesser Antilles by the middle of the week. This system will increase winds and seas across the NE Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low pressure with a weak surface reflection is located just east of central and northern Florida. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen between the east coast of Florida and 74.5W, from 26N-32N. Elsewhere, a broad E-W oriented surface ridge extends along 31N between 30W-70W, leading to light to gentle wind speeds from 24N-32N between 50W-72W. A surface ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage at night through the forecast period. Expect increasing winds and seas E of 65W by the middle of the week as a strong tropical wave approaches the Lesser Antilles. $$ Hagen