000 AXNT20 KNHC 252216 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hanna is centered near 26.8N 97.2W at 25/2100 UTC or 20 nm NE of Port Mansfield Texas moving WSW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center in all quadrants. Doppler radar shows an eye diameter of about 25 nm. Hanna will make landfall on the South Texas coast later this afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane. It should then weaken rapidly inland into a tropical storm tonight and tropical depression Sun over Deep South Texas and NE Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Remnants Of Gonzalo is centered near 11.0N 63.0W at 25/2100 UTC or 110 nm WNW of Trinidad moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 61W and 72W. Gonzalo has weakened and become a remnant system and is not expected to re-strengthen. This is the last NHC Advisory on Gonzalo. These remnants may still bring some squalls with heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the SE Caribbean through the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A strong Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is several hundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, along 32W from 02N to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 07N-12N between 24W- 37W. The westward motion is expected to continue and a tropical depression is likely to form in association with this wave early next week when the system reaches the central Tropical Atlantic. There is a low probability of tropical formation for the next 48 hours, but a high probability of formation in the next 5 days. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 21N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 80W from 21N southward is beginning to move into the Pacific Ocean and Central America. It is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N-16N between 76W-81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N30W to 10N47W. The ITCZ is from 09N52W to 09N57W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-14N E of 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Hanna. Outside of Hanna immediate impacts, broad bands of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 25N to 30N between 85W and 91W. Some thunderstorms are also moving off the Florida Peninsula. Generally, moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring across the Gulf, and with high pressure centered east of the Gulf through much of next week, these will continue. Pulses of strong SE winds are expected at least early next week moving off the Yucatan Peninsula and then crossing portions of the western Gulf. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft. In the area of the northwest Gulf affected by Hurricane Hanna, winds will fall below tropical storm strength overnight along the Texas coast as Hanna moves farther inland, however strong SE winds will prevail through the weekend. Seas of 12 to 20 ft in the same area will fall below 12 ft overnight, but then remain from 7 to 10 ft into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for details on recently dissipated Tropical Depression Gonzalo. Outside of the direct impacts of Gonzalo, scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean N of 17N and W of 81W. Fresh trades are occurring across most of the basin, with some strong winds over the south- central Caribbean. The remnants of Tropical Depression Gonzalo will cross into the south central Caribbean Sun, then into the western Caribbean Mon, as a strong tropical wave. This will bring squalls of showers and thunderstorms, along with strong E winds. Otherwise, fresh trades, occasionally strong in the central Caribbean, will prevail well into next week. A tropical wave currently along 32W has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression early to mid next week, and this could affect Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough coupled with an upper-level low pressure centered over the NW Bahamas is producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection. Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure, anticyclonic wind flow and mostly fair weather span the Atlantic Ocean, north of 24N and east of 65W. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of the ridge through much of next week. A strong tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic will move into the central tropical Atlantic by early next week, and it has a high chance of tropical depression formation in the next 5 days. This feature may reach the eastern tropical Atlantic mid-week. $$ KONARIK