000 AXNT20 KNHC 251806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hanna is centered near 27.0N 96.7W at 25/1800 UTC, or 45 nm ENE of Port Mansfield Texas moving W at 6 kt. Minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle and 210 nm southern semicircle. Doppler radar shows an eye diameter of about 25 nm. A recent observation from a buoy northeast of Hanna indicated seas are over 20 ft. Hanna could intensify more before it makes landfall on the coast of southern Texas late this afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Gonzalo is centered near 10.8N 61.9W at 25/1800 UTC or 45 nm NW of Trinidad moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm of the center in the western semicircle and 45 nm eastern semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An active Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 21N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Some gradual development of this system is possible early net week, and a tropical depression could form in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-12N between 24W-37W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 21N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis from 04N-08N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 21N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-16N between 75W-81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N30W to 10N46W. The ITCZ is from 09N51W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 15W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Outside of the immediate impact area of TS Hanna, generally moderate SE winds persist across the Gulf. A recent ASCAT pass shows that winds over 25 kt associated with Hanna were confined to areas west of 92W and north of 23N, as of 25/1430 UTC. Seas are less than 6 ft east of 92W. Seas are also less than 6 ft for areas west of 92W south of 24N. An area of scattered moderate showers and tstorms is seen from 26N-31N between 87W-91W. Hurricane Hanna will make landfall along the south Texas coast late this afternoon. Conditions over the Gulf waters near Texas will gradually improve Sunday morning. Tropical storm force winds should end for the Gulf waters by late Sunday morning, with winds down to 25 kt Sunday afternoon. Seas to 22 ft today will diminish to 15 ft Sun morning, and to 8 ft by late Sun afternoon. The pressure gradient between Hanna and a ridge across the remainder of the Gulf waters will support fresh to strong SE winds over the western Gulf through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central Caribbean, and anticyclonic outflow, associated with Hurricane Hanna in the Gulf of Mexico, covers the NW corner of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are evident near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated showers and tstorms south of Cuba near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms that may be somewhat associated with T.D. Gonzalo have streamed out well to the west of Gonzalo's circulation. This precipitation covers the basin south of 15N and east of 72W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades from the central Caribbean eastward, with moderate trades over the W Caribbean. Tropical Depression Gonzalo is forecast to reach near 11N64W this evening. It should dissipate into an open tropical wave by late Sunday before it reaches the central Caribbean. The wave will then continue westward, with strong winds and enhanced showers. The tropical wave currently along 29W has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression by the middle of next week before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low is centered over the NW and central Bahamas. The low has a very weak surface reflection to the east, where a surface trough is analyzed from 29N74W to 23N76W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 23N-27N between 73W-77W. A broad ridge of high pressure, anticyclonic wind flow and mostly fair weather span the Atlantic Ocean, north of 24N and east of 65W. A ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage at night through Sun. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. Gonzalo currently affecting the Windward Islands will support fresh to locally strong easterly winds E of 65W through tonight. $$ Hagen