000 AXNT20 KNHC 250922 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 833 UTC Sat Jul 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hanna is centered near 27.0N 95.8W at 25/0900 UTC, or 100 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. A recent observation from a buoy in the most active quadrant of Hanna indicated seas are reaching 22 ft. Hanna will continue to intensify and will reach minimal hurricane strength before making landfall on the coast of Texas this afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 10.1N 58.7W at 25/0900 UTC or 160 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Gonzalo is a fairly compact storm, and scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 45 nm of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An active Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is forecast to move westward, through the tropical Atlantic Ocean, during the next several days. Some gradual development of this system is possible early net week, in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection active along and west of the wave axis, and south of the monsoon trough axis, from 08N to 11N between 28W and 35W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 43W and 48W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 22N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Southern Bahamas, and over the south central Caribbean south of 14N between 74W and 77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N50W. Convection is described above in section on tropical waves. GULF OF MEXICO... Outside of the immediate impact area of TS Hanna, generally moderate SE winds persist across the Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 ft north of 26N and west of 90W, in mixed swell related to Hanna. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft, except lower in the far southwest Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere outside of the immediate area of Hanna in the northwest Gulf. Hanna will make landfall on South Texas later today, then move southwest over Mexico and weaken. This will allow winds and seas to build slightly over the west central and southwest Gulf into Mon. Meanwhile, a ridge will build westward across the northern Gulf in the wake of Hanna through the early part of the week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast flow over most areas by mid week, with pulses of fresh winds mainly at night off western Yucatan due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Cyclonic wind flow, at 500 mb and at 700 mb in the GFS model, covers the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica westward. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 16N northward from Jamaica westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 06N to 13N between 72W and 76W, in parts of Colombia and Venezuela, and in the coastal waters of the Caribbean Sea. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/75W, from 22N southward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward from 76W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 10.0N 57.1W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.4N 59.4W Sat morning; 11.3N 62.6W Sat evening; weaken to a tropical depression near 12.2N 66.0W Sun morning; 12.7N 69.7W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 28N68W 22N72W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 20N northward from 65W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and fair weather span the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 65W eastward. A ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage, at night, through Sunday. The pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean ridge and T.S. Gonzalo currently located to the E of the Windward Islands, will result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds E of 65W, through at least Saturday night. $$ Christensen