000 AXNT20 KNHC 250737 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Corrected tropical waves section Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm HANNA, at 25/0600 UTC, is in the Gulf of Mexico, near 27.0N 95.3W. HANNA is about 122 nm/225 km to the ESE of Corpus Christi in Texas, and about 113 nm/215 km to the ENE of Port Mansfield in Texas. HANNA is moving toward the W, or 270 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. HANNA is expected to make landfall, as a hurricane, tomorrow, in southern Texas. Additional strengthening is forecast. HANNA is expected to become a hurricane, before the cyclone makes landfall on Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after HANNA moves inland. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is elsewhere, from 21N northward. HAZARDS TO THE PUBLIC: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and it may vary greatly over short distances. Please read the advisories and bulletins that are issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office, for information that is specific to your area. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Saturday morning. HANNA is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas, and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. It is possible that this rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected along the upper Texas and the Louisiana coasts. Swells that are generated by HANNA are expected to increase, and to affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. It is likely for these swells to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult advisories and bulletins from your local weather office. A brief tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Texas coast, beginning on Saturday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. The center of Tropical Storm GONZALO, at 25/0600 UTC, is in the Atlantic Ocean, near 10.0N 57.8W. GONZALO is about 210 nm/390 km to the E of Trinidad. GONZALO is moving W, or 270 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. GONZALO is forecast to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the southern Windward Islands beginning later today on Saturday. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 75 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Little change in strength is expected before GONZALO reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after GONZALO moves through the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. HAZARDS TO THE PUBLIC: Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday. GONZALO is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, and isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. GONZALO also is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela. It is possible that the rainfall in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago may lead to areas of flash flooding. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is forecast to move westward, through the tropical Atlantic Ocean, during the next several days, Some gradual development of this system is possible early net week, in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 24N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 10N between 49W and 52W. T.S. GONZALO is about 800 nm to the west of the 43W/44W tropical wave. Other nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/75W, from 22N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N to 21N between the Mona Passage and the Windward Passage. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 18N southward, moving westward 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 13N20W, to 13N30W, and to 12N38W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within 330 nm on the southern side of the monsoon trough between 22W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 55W eastward. A tropical wave is along 36W from 21N southward. T.S. GONZALO is about 825 nm to the west of the 36W tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Hanna near 27.1N 94.8W 992 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Hanna will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 96.1W Sat morning; Hanna will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 27.0N 97.7W Sat evening; inland to 26.6N 99.3W Sun morning; and then weaken rapidly over land Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Cyclonic wind flow, at 500 mb and at 700 mb in the GFS model, covers the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica westward. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 16N northward from Jamaica westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 06N to 13N between 72W and 76W, in parts of Colombia and Venezuela, and in the coastal waters of the Caribbean Sea. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/75W, from 22N southward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward from 76W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 10.0N 57.1W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.4N 59.4W Sat morning; 11.3N 62.6W Sat evening; weaken to a tropical depression near 12.2N 66.0W Sun morning; 12.7N 69.7W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 28N68W 22N72W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 20N northward from 65W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and fair weather span the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 65W eastward. A ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage, at night, through Sunday. The pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean ridge and T.S. Gonzalo currently located to the E of the Windward Islands, will result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds E of 65W, through at least Saturday night. $$ mt