000 AXNT20 KNHC 241016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1016 UTC Fri Jul 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hanna is centered near 26.7N 92.4W at 24/0900 UTC or 270 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant, and within 90 nm elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within a band east of the storm, from 23N to 26N between 88W and 90W. Seas are reaching 11 ft in the northeast quadrant of Hanna, but will build through the morning. Hanna is expected to strengthen slightly before making landfall on the coast of Texas Sat afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 10.0N 51.8W at 24/0900 UTC or 560 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 90 nm of the center of Gonzalo. Seas are reaching 15 ft in the northeast quadrant of the center. Gonzalo is expected to reach minimal hurricane strength by early Sat afternoon as it approaches the southern Windward Islands near Barbados and Tobago, then gradually weaken as it moves through the eastern Caribbean through early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 33W and 39W. Two Caribbean Sea tropical waves are noted near 66W and 70W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N to 22N between 65W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W south of 20N, moving westward 15 knots. No significant convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau 12N16W, to 09N22W, curving to 11N30W and 10N43W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15n between 16W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Outside of the immediate area of TS Hanna, moderate to fresh SE winds are noted across the central and eastern Gulf, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the western Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed beyond the ongoing activity related to Hanna. For the forecast, a ridge will build starting late Sat east to west from roughly Tampa, Florida to South Texas in the wake of Hanna. Winds and seas will diminish accordingly into early next week, although fresh evening winds are possible off Yucatan due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds persist across the basin this morning. Seas are 4 to 6 ft except for 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Caribbean. Clusters of thunderstorms are active off southeast Cuba, with isolated showers over the eastern Caribbean. Gonzalo is forecast to be a minimal hurricane when it moves through the southern Windward Islands later in the day on Saturday, but will start to gradually weaken as it enters the eastern Caribbean, reaching 13.0N 63.3W Sun morning, 13.7N 66.6W Sun afternoon, and 14.0N 69.9W Mon morning, before dissipating by early Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 55W, the subtropical ridge is north of the area, extending east to west along roughly 33N. The gradient between the ridge and tropical waves over the Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas mainly south of 22N. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters. An upper trough over the northern Bahamas is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms south of 23N between 65W and 70W. Little change is expected in the pattern through early next week. Farther east, high pressure dominates the central Atlantic north of 20N. A large area of fresh trade winds are observed between the high pressure and TS Gonzalo in the deep tropics, between 45W and 55W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in this area. Strong NE winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are noted off the coast Africa, north of 20N and east of 30W, to the north of a large area of thunderstorms moving off the coast. $$ Christensen