000 AXNT20 KNHC 240542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm HANNA, at 24/0600 UTC, is in the Gulf of Mexico, near 26.4N 91.8W. HANNA is about 320 nm/575 km to the ESE of Corpus Christi in Texas. HANNA is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The center of HANNA is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 22N northward from 87W westward. Isolated moderate is from 21N southward between 90W and 93W. Scattered moderate to strong is in the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. HANNA is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible through Monday, along the Gulf Coast of the United States from Louisiana to south Texas, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. It is possible that this rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Swells generated by HANNA are expected to increase, and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. It is likely for these swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult advisories and bulletins from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. The center of Tropical Storm GONZALO, at 24/0600 UTC, is in the Atlantic Ocean, near 9.9N 51.2W. GONZALO is about 605 nm/1105 km to the E of the Southern Windward Islands. GONZALO is moving W, or 275 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm of the center in the W quadrant. More strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. GONZALO is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles/55 km from the center. GONZALO is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend. It is possible that GONZALO may bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of GONZALO. It is too soon to determine the magnitude and the timing of those impacts. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 21N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N southward between 30W and 47W. T.S. GONZALO is about 825 nm to the west of the 36W tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 19N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. High pressure is building to the north of the tropical wave. The steering flow has strengthened. The forward motion of the tropical wave has increased. The new speed is comparatively much faster than the average forward speed of tropical waves, which normally is 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 17N to 21N between 61W and 66W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N to 21N between the Mona Passage and the Windward Passage. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the areas from 16N in the NW Caribbean Sea to the Straits of Florida between the Windward Passage and the Yucatan Channel. Isolated moderate also is from 14N southward from 79W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau 12N16W, to 09N22W, curving to 11N30W and 10N43W. Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters is within 200 nm on the northern side of the monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and 20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in clusters within 200 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 27W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 18N southward from 47W eastward. A tropical wave is along 36W from 21N southward. T.S. GONZALO is about 825 nm to the west of the 36W tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Hanna near 26.2N 91.4W 1002 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Hanna will move to 26.6N 92.8W Fri morning; 27.1N 94.5W Fri evening; 27.2N 96.3W Sat morning; inland to 27.2N 97.8W Sat evening; inland to 27.2N 97.8W Sat evening; then weaken rapidly over land on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia from 06N to 10N between 73W and 76W; and in NW Venezuela from 09N to 10.5N between Lake Maracaibo and the border with Colombia. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 14N southward from 75W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 20N southward. Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 9.9N 50.6W 1000 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.2N 52.5W Fri morning; 10.7N 55.1W Fri evening; strengthen to a hurricane near 11.5N 58.2W Sat morning; 12.3N 61.3W Sat evening; weaken to a tropical storm near 13.3N 64.4W Sun morning; and 13.9N 67.3W Sun evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An inverted trough extends from 250 mb to 700 mb. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 65W westward. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 20N northward from 60W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and fair weather span the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 80W eastward. A ridge to the north of the area will support fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage, at night, through Sunday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will increase, to the E of 65W, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic Ocean. $$ mt