000 AXNT20 KNHC 240005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.8N 49.4W at 23/2100 UTC or 700 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm east and 90 nm west semicircles of Gonzalo. It is expected to move fast to the west over the next few days, before moving WNW at an even faster pace for the start of next week. Strengthen is forecast, and Gonzalo is forecast to reach hurricane strength Fri night. Weakening is possible later in the weekend. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 26.1N 90.7W at 23/2100 UTC or 330 nm ESE of Port Oconnor Texas moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm south and 150 nm north semicircles of the depression. The depression is forecast to move WNW for the next day or so, before turning west for the weekend. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression may become a tropical storm tonight. Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase, and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two which may cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult advisories and bulletins from your local weather office. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 31W and 40W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 21N between 58W and 63W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to 20N between 76W and 79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 12N27W to 09N38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 12W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 35W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... The major concern in the Gulf is Tropical Depression Eight, which is near 26.1N 90.7W at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection associated with TD Eight covers the majority of the north-central and northwest basin while it rainbands covers most of the eastern half gulf E of 90W. For further information, see the Special Features Section above. Eight will strengthen to a tropical storm near 26.5N 91.9W Fri morning, move to 27.1N 93.6W Fri afternoon, 27.5N 95.3W Sat morning, 27.6N 97.0W Sat afternoon, inland to 27.5N 98.5W Sun morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 27.3N 100.0W Sun afternoon. Eight will move inland near 27.0N 102.0W Mon afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be variable light to gentle in the SW basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... The rainbands of Tropical Depression Eight in the Gulf of Mexico continue to affect Cuba with heavy showers and tstms. This shower activity extends to southern Cuba adjacent waters. A tropical wave with axis near 79W support this convection as well. A second tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean supporting showers and tstms in Hispaniola, the Windward passage and the Mona Passage. A third tropical wave over the eastern basin support similar shower activity across the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is near 9.8N 49.4W at 5 PM EDT moving W at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. The latest advisory has Gonzalo crossing the Windward Islands late Sat afternoon as a hurricane. Gonzalo is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 13.0N 62.6W Sun morning. See the special features section for further details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 33N51W, with associated ridge extending westward along 32W. The ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage during the night hours this weekend. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ KONARIK/RAMOS