000 AXNT20 KNHC 232200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.8N 49.4W at 23/2100 UTC or 700 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm east and 90 nm west semicircles of Gonzalo. It is expected to move fast to the west over the next few days, before moving WNW at an even faster pace for the start of next week. Strengthen is forecast, and Gonzalo is forecast to reach hurricane strength Fri night. Weakening is possible later in the weekend. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 26.1N 90.7W at 23/2100 UTC or 330 nm ESE of Port Oconnor Texas moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm south and 150 nm north semicircles of the depression. The depression is forecast to move WNW for the next day or so, before turning west for the weekend. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression may become a tropical storm tonight. Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase, and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two which may cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult advisories and bulletins from your local weather office. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 31W and 40W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 21N between 58W and 63W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to 20N between 76W and 79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 12N27W to 09N38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 12W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 35W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Eight is near 26.3N 90.7W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. TD Eight will move to 26.7N 91.8W this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 27.4N 93.4W Fri morning, 27.8N 94.9W Fri evening, 28.0N 96.5W Sat morning, inland to 28.0N 98.0W Sat evening, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 27.9N 99.3W Sun morning. The system is expected to move inland near 27.5N 101.0W by early Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is near 9.6N 48.3W 997 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Gonzalo will move to 9.8N 50.0W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.1N 52.7W Fri morning, 10.5N 55.7W Fri evening, 11.2N 59.0W Sat morning, 11.9N 62.3W Sat evening, and 12.6N 65.4W Sun morning. Gonzalo will weaken to a tropical storm near 14.0N 71.4W early Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 33N51W, with associated ridge extending westward along 32W. This ridge will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage during the night hours this weekend. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ KONARIK