000 AXNT20 KNHC 231001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 601 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 10.0N 47.0W at 23/0900 UTC or 840 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm east and 60 nm west semicircles of Gonzalo. Gonzalo is forecast to reach hurricane intensity today. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 26.0N 90.0W at 23/0900 UTC or 370 nm ESE of Port Oconnor Texas moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of the system. Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase, and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two which may cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult advisories and bulletins from your local weather office. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to 21N between 26W and 34W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, from 18N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 21N between 56W and 60W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 nm east of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, from 19N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 13N to 16N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W, from 21N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to 20N between 75W and 78W. The axis of tropical wave is moving through the SW Gulf of Mexico, near 95W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted over this area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 09.5N35W to 10N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 25W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Eight near 26.0N 90.0W 1009 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Eight will move to 26.4N 91.0W this afternoon, 27.1N 92.3W Fri morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 27.7N 94.0W Fri afternoon, 28.0N 95.5W Sat morning, and inland to 28.2N 97.0W Sat afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Tropical Storm Gonzalo was near 10.0N 47.0W 997 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds were 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Gonzalo is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane near 10.1N 48.7W this afternoon. The system is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Saturday night, and move along a WNW track. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 33N48W, with associated ridge extending westward along 32W. This ridge will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. The wind speeds and the sea heights will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure continues to build across the western Atlantic Ocean. $$ AL