000 AXNT20 KNHC 230538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm GONZALO, at 23/0300 UTC, is in the Atlantic Ocean, near 9.9N 45.9W. GONZALO is about 910 nm/1685 km to the E of the Southern Windward Islands. GONZALO is moving W, or 270 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 90 nm of the center in the W quadrant. More strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. GONZALO is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles/55 km from the center. GONZALO is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend. It is possible that GONZALO may bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of GONZALO. It is too soon to determine the magnitude and the timing of those impacts. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. The center of Tropical Depression EIGHT, at 23/0600 UTC, is in the Gulf of Mexico, near 25.9N 88.8W. T.D. EIGHT is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 5 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 27N southward from 92W eastward. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. The depression is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain. Isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are possible along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, from Louisiana to the Lower Texas coast, and inland through south central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase, and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, in a day or two. It is likely that these swells may cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult advisories and bulletins from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 18N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. High pressure is building to the north of the tropical wave. The steering flow has strengthened. The forward motion of the tropical wave has increased. The new speed is comparatively much faster than the average forward speed of tropical waves, which normally is 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 250 nm to the north of the northernmost point of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate is within 330 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 18N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Guyana and Suriname from 02N to 06N between 55W and 61W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 19N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 390 nm to the west of the tropical wave, mostly in Venezuela, and in parts of Colombia also. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 21N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Bahamas between the Mona Passage and 80W. A tropical wave is moving through the SW Gulf of Mexico, along 93W/94W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong covers the interior/land areas, from SW Guatemala to the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula between the Yucatan Peninsula and 97W, including in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 15N20W to 11N30W to 09N36W and 10N39W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 35W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the monsoon trough southward from 40W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Eight near 25.9N 88.2W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Eight will move to 26.3N 89.3W Thu morning, 27.0N 90.8W Thu evening; strengthen to a tropical storm near 27.9N 92.4W Fri morning; 28.2N 94.0W Fri evening; 28.5N 95.3W Sat morning; and inland to 28.7N 96.8W Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 75W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 9.9N 45.9W 998 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.0N 47.6W Thu morning; strengthen to a hurricane near 10.2N 50.0W Thu evening; 10.6N 52.7W Fri morning; 11.2N 55.5W Fri evening; 11.8N 58.6W Sat morning; and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.6N 61.8W Sat evening. Gonzalo will change little in intensity as it moves to the west through Sun afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and fair weather span the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 80W eastward. A ridge to the north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola, and near the entrance to the Windward Passage, for the next several nights. The wind speeds and the sea heights will increase E of 65W, toward the end of the week, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic Ocean. $$ mt