940 AXNT20 KNHC 230003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.9N 45.0W at 22/2100 UTC or 960 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 43W and 46W. Gonzalo is forecast to continue moving west, at a gradually faster pace, through the end of the week, before it may begin to curve to the WNW. On this track, the system will move into the offshore forecast zones east of the Windward Islands Friday, and enter the eastern Caribbean Saturday. Strengthening is forecast, and Gonzalo is liekly to become a hurricane by Thu afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Low pressure has developed in the Central Gulf of Mexico near 25N89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf south of 22N extending along the Yucatan Channel in association to this system. Conditions are favorable to this low to develop further, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves WNW at 9 kt. This low has a high chance of tropical formation within the next two to five days. Please refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for further information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 22W and 31W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, from 18N southward. With high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the steering flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward motion of the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25 knots. This is much faster than the average forward speed of tropical waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm on the east side of the wave axis from 06N to 09N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 16N to 22N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 092N30W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N52W to 07N58W. Aside from convection noted with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough between 28W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO An area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined as indicated by surface observations, satellite imagery and aircraft reconaissance data. A middle-level inverted trough support this low with upper-level diffluence supporting scattered moderate convection S of 28N E of 91W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward at about 9 kt. Surface observations show fresh to locally strong SE winds already over portions of the NE gulf while model guidance indicate the continuation of at least fresh SE winds for the eastern half of the basin through Sat. Scattered to numerous heavy showers are forecast for most of the gulf through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Heavy showers and tstms are across Cuba and adjacent waters being supported by a broad area of low pressure located in the central Gulf of Mexico. With the Bermuda and Azores high in place over the central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean waters, moderate to fresh winds will prevail for the eastern and central basin. These winds will be fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, specifically along the coast and adjacent waters of Colombia, due to lower pressure and local terrain effects. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is near 9.9N 45.0W 1000 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.0N 46.8W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.1N 49.2W Thu afternoon, 10.3N 51.8W Fri morning, 10.8N 54.6W Fri afternoon, 11.3N 57.6W Sat morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.1N 60.8W Sat afternoon. Gonzalo will change little in intensity as it moves to the west through Sun afternoon. The center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. See Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Gonzalo. Otherwise, see the tropical waves section for information on showers and tstms over Hispaniola and adjacent waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and tstms prevail over the Bahamas as well as Turks and Caicos associated with a broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. The remainder basin N of 20N is under the influence of the Azores and Bermuda high, which is supporting fair weather. The extension of the Bermuda and Azores high into the SW Atlantic waters will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ KONARIK/RAMOS