000 AXNT20 KNHC 221540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1030 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.9N 43.6W at 22/1500 UTC or 1050 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 41W and 44W. Gonzalo is forecast to continue moving west, at a gradually faster pace, through the end of the week. On the westward track, the system will move into the offshore forecast zones east of the Windward Islands Friday, and enter the eastern Caribbean Saturday. Strengthening is forecast, and Gonzalo may become a hurricane Thu morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 20W and 29W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W, from 18N southward. With high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the steering flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward motion of the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25 knots. This is much faster than the average forward speed of tropical waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm on the east side of the wave axis from 06N to 09N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 16N to 22N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, from 23N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Low pressure has developed in association with this wave, and is currently centered in the central Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf south of 22N extending along the Yucatan Channel in association to this system. Please refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for further information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 092N30W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N52W to 07N58W. Aside from convection noted with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough between 28W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 25.7N87.9W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf south of 26N in association to this system. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The remainder of the basin is under fair benign weather. The low will continue to shift WNW across the Central Gulf today, and into the NW Gulf Thursday and Friday. This low is being monitored for possible tropical cyclone formation, with a medium probability of genesis by the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in association with this system the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Newly formed Tropical Storm Gonzalo is near 9.9N 43.6W 1000 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.0N 45.3W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.0N 47.7W Thu morning, 10.1N 50.2W Thu evening, 10.4N 52.8W Fri morning, 10.7N 55.6W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 11.4N 58.8W Sat morning. Gonzalo will change little in intensity as it continues to move westward over the Caribbean through early Sun. See Special Features section above for more information on Tropical storm Gonzalo. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Active convection continues west of the Bahamas as tropical moisture continues to follow a tropical wave that is in the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 33N40W, with associated ridge extending westward roughly along 32N. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge axis. The pressure gradient between the high pressure center and Tropical Storm Gonzalo is supporting fresh to locally strong winds generally over the waters south of 25N and east of 60W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted within 60 NM north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ MMT/SBK