000 AXNT20 KNHC 221004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 10.0N 42.4W at 22/0900 UTC or 1120 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 41W and 44W. TD Seven is forecast to continue on a westward motion, and reach tropical storm intensity today. On the westward track, the system will move into the offshore forecast zones east of the Windward Islands Friday, and enter the eastern Caribbean Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 20W and 27W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W, from 19N southward. With high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the steering flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward motion of the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25 knots. This is much faster than the average forward speed of tropical waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm west of the wave axis from 07N to 09N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 90 nm east of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 20N to 22N, and within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 14N to 17N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, from 23N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Low pressure has developed in association with this wave, and is currently centered in the central Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf south of 26N in association to this system. There is currently a low probability that this low will develop into tropical cyclone over the next 2 days, and a medium probability of tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for further information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N16W to 12N27W to 12N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N51W to 09N59W. Aside from convection noted with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360 NM south of the monsoon trough between 21W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 25.5N87W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf south of 26N in association to this system. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The low will continue to shift WNW across the Central Gulf today, and into the NW Gulf Thursday and Friday. This low is being monitored for possible tropical cyclone formation, with a low probability of genesis over the next two days, and a medium probability over the next five days. Fresh to strong winds are expected in association with this system the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Tropical Depression Seven is centered east of the Windward Islands near 10.0N 42.4W, and is moving WNW at 10 kt. TD Seven is forecast to continue on a westward motion, and reach tropical storm intensity today. On the westward track, the system is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on Tropical Depression Seven. Active convection continues west of the Bahamas as tropical moisture continues to follow a tropical wave that is in the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 33N40W, with associated ridge extending westward roughly along 32N. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge axis. The pressure gradient between the high pressure center and TD Seven is supporting fresh to locally strong winds generally over the waters south of 25N and east of 60W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted within 60 NM north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. The ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure continues to build across the western Atlantic. $$ AL