000 AXNT20 KNHC 220608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression SEVEN, at 22/0000 UTC, is near 09.8N 40.8W. T.D. SEVEN is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 11N between 41W and 43W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W, from 19N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. High pressure to the north of the tropical wave is building, which has strengthened the steering flow. This has increased the motion of the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25 knots. This is much faster than the average forward speed of tropical wave. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is part of the ITCZ precipitation. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to 24N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 23N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is in Central America, within 150 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 09N to 16N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 16N17W, to 14N20W to 11N30W, and to 11N36W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N between 50W and 58W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 26W eastward, and elsewhere within 420 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, except with respect to the precipitation that is close to T.D. SEVEN. GULF OF MEXICO A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 25N86W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 390 nm of the center in the E quadrant in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Straits of Florida, and within 540 nm of the center in the SE quadrant in the Caribbean Sea. This low pressure center is expected to move through the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight, to move into the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. Gradual tropical cyclone formation is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. Increasing wind speeds and sea heights are expected in association with this low pressure center. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered strong is along the coast, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 11.5N southward between the coast of Colombia and 79W. Tropical Depression Seven near 10.0N 41.3W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Seven will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.2N 42.7W Wed morning, move to 10.3N 45.0W Wed evening, 10.4N 47.5W Thu morning, 10.5N 50.1W Thu evening, 10.8N 52.9W Fri morning, and 11.3N 56.0W Fri evening. Tropical Cyclone Seven will change little in intensity as it moves westward through the southwest Caribbean through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ mt