000 AXNT20 KNHC 220006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2307 UTC Tue Jul 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Seven formed in the Central Tropical Atlantic at 2100 UTC. The center of T.D. Seven is near 9.8N 40.4W, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 37W and 43W. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc extending from 05N-20N with axis near 18W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-17N east of 21W. A tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending from 06N-18N with axis near 57W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 07N-10N between 55W-61W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending from 10N-20N with axis near 66W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 84W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 17N between 75W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 14N17W to 10N24W to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06N46W to 08N60W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and Tropical Depression Seven, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of both ITCZ and monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO A weak low pressure has developed over the SE Gulf near the northern end of a tropical wave. This system is expected to cross the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight, move over the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. Gradual tropical cyclone formation is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. Increasing winds and seas are expected in association with this system. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see above for more information on two tropical waves supporting showers and tstms in both Puerto Rico and Cuba, respectively. Tropical Depression Seven formed near 9.8N 40.4W at 5 PM EDT and is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.1N 41.7W Wed morning, move to 10.3N 43.9W Wed afternoon, 10.3N 46.3W Thu morning, 10.4N 49.0W Thu afternoon, 10.6N 51.6W Fri morning, and 11.0N 54.7W Fri afternoon. Seven will enter the southeast Caribbean Sat early in the afternoon, however it will weaken as it continues to move westward through the southwest Caribbean through Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean this week. Otherwise, expect increasing winds and seas over the NE Caribbean toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and tstms prevail over adjacent waters of the Greater Antilles as well as in the central Bahamas associated with an area of low pressure that developed over the SE Gulf of Mexico. A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ Ramos